Stockport vs Barnsley Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Edgeley Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.41
Draw
5.25
Away Win
6.01
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stockport
Stockport rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Stockport a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stockport stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stockport stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stockport slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Stockport stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stockport have secured three victories from their last five outings at home, while Barnsley have recorded two wins and two defeats in their corresponding away sample. At home, Stockport have scored in five consecutive matches but have managed to keep a clean sheet just twice during that same period. Stockport rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Stockport won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 2 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Barnsley's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 13-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Stockport a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Stockport
No current absences reported
Barnsley
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 13 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Stockport remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Stockport win
Latest market chance 66.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
66.5% → 66.8%
+0.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 18.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
19.7% → 18.8%
−0.9 pts
Barnsley win
Latest market chance 14.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
13.8% → 14.3%
+0.5 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
9 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Stockport
Draw
Barnsley
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Stockport
Barnsley
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
18th
8
Games Played
7
1.63
Points/Game
1.14
2.12
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.71
16.4
Shots/Game
17.0
5.2
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Stockport at home (4 matches) vs Barnsley away (3 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.33
2.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Stockport
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Barnsley
Away form
L
W
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Stockport Wins
2
Draws
3
Barnsley Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
2026-05-022025-2026
Barnsley1 – 3Stockport
2025-11-292025-2026
Stockport1 – 1Barnsley
2025-02-082024-2025
Stockport2 – 1Barnsley
2024-09-282024-2025
Barnsley1 – 1Stockport
2005-01-222004-2005
Stockport2 – 2Barnsley
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Stockport
vs
Barnsley
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
84.2%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
66.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
46.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
58.4%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.0%→Latest 66.6%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 58.4%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 13 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Stockport's 10 matches and 3 of Barnsley's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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