Barnet vs Accrington Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Hive Stadium
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.47
Draw
4.57
Away Win
6.43
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Barnet
Accrington
6'
🟨 Tyler Walton
16'
🟨 Josh Woods
27'
⚽ Charlie Caton
29'
🟨 Joseph Anderson
55'
🟨 Devon matthews
Charlie Lakin (Adam Senior) ⚽
57'
Charlie Lakin ⚽
72'
74'
🟥 Devon matthews
81'
🟨 Connor O'Brien
Match Statistics ?
61%
Ball Possession
39%
15
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
4
9
Fouls
19
0
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Barnet (4-2-3-1)
M. Cox
A. Senior
Z. Williams
D. Collinge
I. Kanu
B. Comley
N. Ofoborh
C. Lakin
O. Gallagher
T. Knowles
K. Tshimanga
Accrington (4-4-1-1)
L. Moulden
C. O'Brien
D. Matthews
J. Anderson
D. Tutonda
T. Walton
L. Coyle
Aidan Borland
S. Whalley
J. Woods
C. Caton
Player Ratings ?
Barnet
C. LakinM8.8
A. SeniorD7.3
J. MaskellF7.0
Accrington
C. CatonF7.6
C. WarrenF6.7
Aidan BorlandM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Barnet
Barnet rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Barnet an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Barnet stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Barnet stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Barnet stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Barnet stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Accrington have struggled away from home recently, recording just a solitary draw and four defeats in their last five outings, whereas Barnet have been formidable at this venue with three wins and two draws from the same number of matches. The home side have found the net in five consecutive matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical run. Barnet rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Barnet won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 24 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Accrington's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison favours Barnet.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Barnet
Barnet's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Barnet win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Barnet win
Latest market chance 63.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
59.1% → 63.3%
+4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
22.7% → 21.5%
−1.2 pts
Accrington win
Latest market chance 15.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
18.2% → 15.2%
−3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Barnet
Draw
Accrington
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BarnetAccrington
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
19th
5
Games Played
5
1.80
Points/Game
1.00
2.40
Goals/Game
1.80
1.60
Conceded/Game
2.20
15.7
Shots/Game
14.6
4.9
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Barnet at home (4 matches) vs Accrington away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
0.25
2.50
Goals/Game
1.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
2.00
75%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Barnet
Home form
D
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Accrington
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Barnet Wins
2
Draws
1
Accrington Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Accrington0 – 1Barnet
Barnet2 – 0Accrington
Barnet1 – 1Accrington
Accrington4 – 1Barnet
Accrington1 – 0Barnet
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Barnetvs
Accrington
Recent Scoring Profile
3.00
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded / game
2.30
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.3%→Latest 59.6%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 54.6%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Barnet's 10 matches and 5 of Accrington's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?