Cheltenham vs Chesterfield Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Whaddon Road
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.12
Draw
3.79
Away Win
2.13
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Cheltenham
Chesterfield
Pierce Sweeney 🟨
12'
Charlie McCann (Ryan Broom) ⚽
17'
Andreas Weimann (Jonathan Tomkinson) ⚽
37'
49'
⚽ Louie Marsh
Jordan Shipley 🟨
55'
Andreas Weimann 🟨
84'
Freddie willcox 🟨
89'
Match Statistics ?
34%
Ball Possession
66%
7
Total Shots
27
3
Shots on Goal
11
2
Corner Kicks
11
9
Fouls
6
4
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
10
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Cheltenham (4-1-4-1)
W. Stanway
J. Tomkinson
R. Cundy
P. Sweeney
J. Tomlinson
B. Stevenson
J. Evans
R. Broom
C. McCann
J. Shipley
A. Weimann
Chesterfield (4-2-3-1)
R. Boot
R. Hutton
K. McFadzean
J. Simpson
L. Gordon
G. McEachran
R. Stirk
D. Markanday
L. Marsh
J. Randall
L. Bonis
Player Ratings ?
Cheltenham
W. StanwayG8.8
A. WeimannF7.4
R. BroomM6.9
Chesterfield
L. MarshM8.2
R. HuttonD7.5
R. StirkM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Chesterfield edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Chesterfield stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chesterfield have secured three victories and a single draw in their last five away outings, while Cheltenham manage just two wins from five home fixtures during the same period. Cheltenham have found the net in each of their last five home matches but remain without a clean sheet to show for it over that identical run. Chesterfield rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Chesterfield won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 3 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Cheltenham's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Cheltenham's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Chesterfield's implied win probability has risen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Cheltenham
Cheltenham's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Cheltenham win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Chesterfield remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 30.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
31.5% → 30.5%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.9% → 25.4%
+0.5 pts
Chesterfield win
Latest market chance 44.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.5% → 44.1%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Cheltenham
Draw
Chesterfield
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CheltenhamChesterfield
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
8th
7
Games Played
7
1.71
Points/Game
1.57
2.00
Goals/Game
1.43
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.14
9.3
Shots/Game
18.4
3.7
Shots on Target
6.4
Home vs Away Context
Cheltenham at home (4 matches) vs Chesterfield away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.50
2.25
Goals/Game
1.25
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
75%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Cheltenham
Home form
L
L
W
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chesterfield
Away form
W
D
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Cheltenham Wins
1
Draws
2
Chesterfield Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.6
Chesterfield1 – 0Cheltenham
Cheltenham0 – 2Chesterfield
Cheltenham1 – 0Chesterfield
Chesterfield1 – 1Cheltenham
Cheltenham1 – 1Chesterfield
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Cheltenhamvs
Chesterfield
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.00
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.1%→Latest 55.5%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.6%→Latest 59.0%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Cheltenham's 10 matches and 3 of Chesterfield's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?