Colchester vs Cheltenham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Colchester Community Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.98
Draw
3.59
Away Win
3.68
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Colchester
Cheltenham
10'
🟨 Shaun McWilliams
18'
🟨 Jake Evans
Oscar thorn 🟨
28'
Moses Sesay (Ellis Iandolo) ⚽
66'
Harry Anderson 🟨
76'
78'
⚽ (P) Andreas Weimann
Jaden Williams 🟥
83'
Ellis Iandolo 🟨
84'
85'
🟨 Jonathan Tomkinson
90+2'
🟨 Charlie McCann
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
8
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
2
3
Corner Kicks
9
14
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Colchester (4-2-3-1)
T. Lo-Tutala
R. Hunt
J. Tucker
S. Raggett
E. Iandolo
M. Sesay
J. Williams
O. Thorn
J. Payne
H. Anderson
K. Kouassi
Cheltenham (4-2-3-1)
W. Stanway
J. Tomkinson
R. Cundy
P. Sweeney
J. Tomlinson
S. McWilliams
B. Stevenson
J. Evans
C. McCann
J. Shipley
A. Weimann
Player Ratings ?
Colchester
M. SesayM8.2
S. RaggettD6.9
E. IandoloD6.9
Cheltenham
A. WeimannF7.5
R. CundyD7.1
P. SweeneyD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Colchester edge defence and head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Colchester stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Colchester stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Colchester have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Cheltenham have recorded two wins in that same span of five away fixtures. At home, Colchester have scored in four of their last five matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that identical period. Colchester rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. Colchester won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 2 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Cheltenham's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Colchester's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Cheltenham's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Colchester
Colchester's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Colchester win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Colchester win
Latest market chance 47.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
48.8% → 47.8%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.5%
+0.2 pts
Cheltenham win
Latest market chance 25.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
24.9% → 25.7%
+0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Colchester
Draw
Cheltenham
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ColchesterCheltenham
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
4th
6
Games Played
6
1.33
Points/Game
1.83
1.17
Goals/Game
2.17
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.67
12.6
Shots/Game
9.3
4.1
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
Colchester at home (4 matches) vs Cheltenham away (5 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.25
Goals/Game
1.40
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.60
50%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Colchester
Home form
W
L
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Cheltenham
Away form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Colchester Wins
3
Draws
0
Cheltenham Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Cheltenham1 – 4Colchester
Colchester2 – 0Cheltenham
Cheltenham0 – 1Colchester
Colchester1 – 2Cheltenham
Cheltenham1 – 0Colchester
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Colchestervs
Cheltenham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 53.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 56.8%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Colchester's 10 matches and 4 of Cheltenham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?