Crewe vs Bristol Rvs Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Alexandra Stadium
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.09
Draw
3.38
Away Win
2.34
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Crewe
Bristol Rvs
Jack Lankester (Joel Tabiner) ⚽
1'
Josh March 🟨
8'
8'
🟨 Thomas James
Joshua Stephenson 🟨
10'
Jack Lankester ⚽ (P)
21'
30'
🟨 Ciaran Kelly
Owen lunt 🟨
38'
Jordan Gibson (Josh March) ⚽
66'
77'
🟨 Keenan Gough
Conor Thomas 🟨
79'
89'
🟨 Clinton Mola
90+2'
⚽ Bobby Kamwa (Clinton Mola)
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
9
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
5
13
Fouls
23
4
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Crewe (4-2-3-1)
T. Booth
L. Billington
L. Offord
J. Stephenson
Kyle Ure
O. Lunt
J. White
J. Lankester
J. Tabiner
J. March
A. Thibaut
Bristol Rvs (3-4-1-2)
Brad Young
K. Balmer
A. Kilgour
C. Kelly
T. James
R. Smallwood
C. Mola
J. Sparkes
R. Russell-Denny
B. Kamwa
E. Harrison
Player Ratings ?
Crewe
J. LankesterM8.2
J. GibsonM7.1
J. MarchM6.8
Bristol Rvs
B. KamwaF7.6
P. SanyaoluM6.7
T. JamesM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Crewe edge defence and head-to-head, Bristol Rvs edge recent form and attack, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Bristol Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Bristol Rvs stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Crewe slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Crewe slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Crewe have remained unbeaten in their last five home outings, while Bristol Rovers have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away matches. At home, Crewe have scored in four of their last five matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. Bristol Rvs rate stronger on form and attack, while Crewe hold a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head. Bristol Rvs won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 7 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Crewe's 3, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Crewe's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Bristol Rvs's implied win probability has risen by 0.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Bristol Rvs unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Crewe
Crewe's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Crewe win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Bristol Rvs remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Crewe win
Latest market chance 31.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
32.3% → 31.3%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.0% → 27.7%
+0.7 pts
Bristol Rvs win
Latest market chance 41.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.7% → 41.0%
+0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Crewe
Draw
Bristol Rvs
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CreweBristol Rvs
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
3rd
8
Games Played
8
1.50
Points/Game
1.88
1.00
Goals/Game
1.62
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.38
12.0
Shots/Game
16.1
3.3
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Crewe at home (5 matches) vs Bristol Rvs away (5 matches)
1.80
Points/Game
0.60
1.60
Goals/Game
1.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.20
40%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Crewe
Home form
D
W
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bristol Rvs
Away form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Crewe Wins
3
Draws
1
Bristol Rvs Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Bristol Rvs2 – 1Crewe
Crewe1 – 1Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs0 – 1Crewe
Crewe3 – 2Bristol Rvs
Crewe3 – 0Bristol Rvs
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Crewevs
Bristol Rvs
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.80
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.20
1/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 51.5%−5.0 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 56.5%−3.2 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Crewe's 10 matches and 2 of Bristol Rvs's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?