Exeter vs Rotherham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St James Park
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.64
Draw
3.30
Away Win
2.74
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Exeter
Rotherham
L. Woodhouse 🟨
43'
Anthony Scully (George Birch) ⚽
51'
58'
🟨 Dominic Iorfa
Charlie Cummins 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
16
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Goal
0
8
Corner Kicks
2
8
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Exeter (4-2-3-1)
J. Bycroft
L. Samuel
J. Taylor
J. Fitzwater
L. Woodhouse
J. Doyle-Hayes
C. Cummins
A. Scully
T. Perry
George Birch
J. Gordon
Rotherham (4-2-3-1)
J. Eyestone
D. Hall
Sonny Aljofree
D. Iorfa
K. Ngwenya
O. Ashley
Jayce Fitzgerald
Marvin Marvellous Kaleta
J. Austerfield
J. Buyabu
P. Mullin
Player Ratings ?
Exeter
A. ScullyM8.0
J. FitzwaterD7.3
George BirchM7.2
Rotherham
J. EyestoneG6.7
K. NgwenyaD6.6
O. AshleyM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Rotherham
Rotherham rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Exeter edge defence, giving Rotherham a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Rotherham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Rotherham have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Exeter have managed just one victory in three draws and a defeat over that same home sample. At home, the hosts have found the net in two of their last five matches yet have kept three clean sheets in that identical span. Rotherham rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Exeter rate stronger on defence. Rotherham won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 31 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Exeter's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Exeter's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points, while Rotherham's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Rotherham a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Exeter
Exeter's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Exeter win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Exeter win
Latest market chance 36.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.0% → 36.4%
−3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.5%
+0.1 pts
Rotherham win
Latest market chance 35.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.6% → 35.1%
+3.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Exeter
Draw
Rotherham
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ExeterRotherham
Season Profile
This season
21st
League Position
13th
8
Games Played
8
0.75
Points/Game
1.25
0.50
Goals/Game
1.38
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.38
11.1
Shots/Game
12.4
3.6
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Exeter at home (5 matches) vs Rotherham away (5 matches)
1.80
Points/Game
0.80
0.80
Goals/Game
0.80
0.20
Conceded/Game
1.20
40%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Exeter
Home form
L
W
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Rotherham
Away form
W
L
D
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Exeter Wins
1
Draws
1
Rotherham Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Exeter0 – 4Rotherham
Rotherham1 – 0Exeter
Rotherham1 – 1Exeter
Exeter1 – 0Rotherham
Rotherham4 – 1Exeter
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Exetervs
Rotherham
Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.10
1/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
6/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 49.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.3%→Latest 54.9%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Exeter's 10 matches and 2 of Rotherham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?