Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale Head to Head | League Two

Match Report

Full Time

1 – 2

Match Events

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale

⚽ Dajaune Brown (Glenn Middleton)

14'

⚽ Aden Flint (Dajaune Brown)

Mark Helm (Aaron Loupalo-Bi) ⚽

30'

39'

🟨 Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling

69'

🟥 Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling

R. Cirino 🟨

73'

Match Statistics

54%

Ball Possession

46%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

Offsides

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Fleetwood Town (5-3-2)

J. Lynch

R. Cirino

S. Rooney

F. Potter

Kayden Hughes

L. McCann

A. Murphy

H. Neal

M. Helm

A. Loupalo-Bi

C. Evans

Rochdale (4-2-3-1)

Sam William John Waller

C. Tasker

A. Flint

Kaiden Wilson

O. Adebayo-Rowling

H. Gilmour

B. Adeeko

J. Smith

G. Middleton

Kane Taylor

D. Brown

Player Ratings

Fleetwood Town

M. HelmM7.3

R. CoughlanF7.2

A. Loupalo-BiF6.8

Rochdale

D. BrownF8.6

G. MiddletonM7.7

A. FlintD7.3

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. Fleetwood Town edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Fleetwood Town slightly stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Fleetwood Town stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Fleetwood Town stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Fleetwood Town stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Rochdale have struggled on the road with no wins from their last five away fixtures, while Fleetwood Town remain unbeaten at home in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home games but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Fleetwood Town rate stronger on attack, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2021. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.

Pre-Match Context

Notable Numbers

Rochdale losing run

4/5

One-goal H2H results

Rochdale points from last 5 matches

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Slight shift towards the draw

the draw's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a draw as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Fleetwood Town remain the clear market favourite.

Movement strength: Slight

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Fleetwood Town win

Latest market chance 49.9%

Steady

Market view unchanged

50.5% → 49.9%

−0.6 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 26.0%

Slight shortening

Market chance increased

25.2% → 26.0%

+0.8 pts

Rochdale win

Latest market chance 24.1%

Steady

Market view unchanged

24.3% → 24.1%

−0.2 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

7 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Fleetwood Town

Draw

Rochdale

7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale

Season Profile

This season

11th

League Position

17th

Games Played

1.43

Points/Game

1.00

1.14

Goals/Game

1.00

Conceded/Game

1.43

14.4

Shots/Game

8.9

3.3

Shots on Target

3.1

Home vs Away Context

Fleetwood Town at home (4 matches) vs Rochdale away (4 matches)

1.25

Points/Game

1.00

Goals/Game

0.50

0.75

Conceded/Game

1.25

25%

Win Rate

25%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Fleetwood Town

Home form

Unbeaten in last 5 at home

2 of these matches from last season.

1.0

Goals scored
per match

0.6

Goals conceded
per match

4/5

Scored in
last 5

2/5

Clean
sheets

Rochdale

Away form

Winless in last 5 away

2 of these matches from last season.

0.2

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

1/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Fleetwood Town Wins

Draws

Rochdale Wins

Avg Goals

2.8

2021-04-102020-2021

Fleetwood Town1 – 0Rochdale

2020-10-032020-2021

Rochdale2 – 1Fleetwood Town

2019-12-262019-2020

Rochdale2 – 3Fleetwood Town

2019-09-212019-2020

Fleetwood Town2 – 1Rochdale

2019-01-192018-2019

Rochdale1 – 1Fleetwood Town

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Fleetwood Town

Rochdale

Recent Scoring Profile

1.20

Goals scored / game

1.20

1.10

Goals conceded / game

1.30

3/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

5/10

7/10

Both Teams Scored

4/10

1/10

Failed to Score

4/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

72.5%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

48.8%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

28.8%

BTTSBoth teams score

52.4%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 52.0%→Latest 48.8%−3.2 pts

Strong move away from 3+ goals

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

7 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 54.2%→Latest 52.4%−1.8 pts

Notable move away from both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

6 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

3 of Fleetwood Town's 10 matches and 3 of Rochdale's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis