Port Vale vs Exeter Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Vale Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.02
Draw
3.55
Away Win
3.59
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Port Vale
Exeter
57'
🟨 Jake Doyle Hayes
George Byers ⚽ (P)
70'
Jordan Gabriel 🟨
73'
George Byers 🟨
77'
90+5'
🟨 Taylor Perry
Ben Garrity 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Goal
0
6
Corner Kicks
4
14
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Port Vale (3-4-2-1)
J. Smith
K. John
L. Montsma
C. Hall
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
K. Dempsey
B. Garrity
J. Headley
G. Byers
B. Waine
O. Lynch
Exeter (3-4-1-2)
J. Bycroft
E. James
J. Fitzwater
L. Woodhouse
G. Edwards
J. Doyle-Hayes
C. Cummins
V. Harper
R. Cole
J. Gordon
D. Rose
Player Ratings ?
Port Vale
K. DempseyM7.2
G. ByersM6.8
L. MontsmaD6.8
Exeter
E. JamesD7.2
J. FitzwaterD7.2
D. RoseF6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Port Vale edge attack, Exeter edge recent form and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Exeter stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Port Vale stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Exeter slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Exeter have struggled on the road with just one win and one draw from their last five away outings, while Port Vale look steadier at home having secured a single victory alongside three draws in that same span. Port Vale have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that period, showing a mixed approach to scoring and defending at this venue. Exeter rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while Port Vale rate stronger on attack, while defence is closely matched. Exeter won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 24 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Port Vale's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Port Vale win
Latest market chance 46.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
47.0% → 46.9%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.7% → 27.0%
+0.3 pts
Exeter win
Latest market chance 26.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.1%
−0.2 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+1+0.50−0.5Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Port Vale
Draw
Exeter
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Port Vale
Exeter
Season Profile
This season
24th
League Position
16th
5
Games Played
5
0.40
Points/Game
1.00
0.40
Goals/Game
0.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
0.80
11.0
Shots/Game
11.1
2.9
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Port Vale at home (3 matches) vs Exeter away (4 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
0.00
0.67
Goals/Game
0.25
0.33
Conceded/Game
1.25
33%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Port Vale
Home form
W
D
L
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Exeter
Away form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Port Vale Wins
3
Draws
0
Exeter Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
2026-01-242025-2026
Port Vale1 – 3Exeter
2025-09-132025-2026
Exeter0 – 2Port Vale
2024-04-132023-2024
Port Vale2 – 4Exeter
2023-12-092023-2024
Exeter0 – 1Port Vale
2023-02-182022-2023
Port Vale1 – 0Exeter
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Port Vale
vs
Exeter
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
72.4%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
48.4%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
27.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
52.3%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.4%→Latest 48.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.5%→Latest 51.9%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
5 of Port Vale's 10 matches and 5 of Exeter's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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