Rochdale vs Swindon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Spotland
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.26
Draw
3.57
Away Win
3.08
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Rochdale
Swindon
81'
🟨 Kaelan Majekodunmi
85'
🟥 Kaelan Majekodunmi
Cian Hayes (Aden Flint) ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
15
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Goal
2
11
Corner Kicks
5
7
Fouls
18
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Rochdale (4-2-3-1)
Nils Ramming
S. Sherring
A. Flint
Kaiden Wilson
C. Tasker
H. Gilmour
E. Francis
J. Smith
B. Adeeko
G. Middleton
D. Brown
Swindon (4-4-2)
C. Ripley
J. Ball
S. Negru
K. Majekodunmi
B. Kirkman
T. Nichols
J. Thomson
A. Munda
D. Butler
A. Drinan
A. Hackford
Player Ratings ?
Rochdale
A. FlintD7.7
C. HayesF7.5
G. MiddletonM7.2
Swindon
C. RipleyG7.0
D. ButlerM6.7
A. MundaM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rochdale edge recent form, attack and defence, Swindon edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Rochdale stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rochdale stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Rochdale stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Swindon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Swindon have struggled on the road with just one draw from their last five away fixtures, while Rochdale look more confident at home with three victories in that same span. Rochdale have found the net in all five of their home outings but have also kept two clean sheets during that period. Rochdale rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Swindon rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 18 March 2023, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Rochdale's implied win probability has risen by 3.1 percentage points, while Swindon's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Rochdale losing run
1
Swindon points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Rochdale
Rochdale's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Rochdale win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rochdale win
Latest market chance 41.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
38.6% → 41.7%
+3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.6% → 26.8%
−0.8 pts
Swindon win
Latest market chance 31.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
33.8% → 31.5%
−2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rochdale
Draw
Swindon
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RochdaleSwindon
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
12th
8
Games Played
8
1.25
Points/Game
1.38
1.12
Goals/Game
1.12
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.50
8.9
Shots/Game
9.1
3.1
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
Rochdale at home (5 matches) vs Swindon away (5 matches)
1.80
Points/Game
0.20
1.60
Goals/Game
0.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.80
60%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rochdale
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swindon
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
0/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rochdale Wins
1
Draws
3
Swindon Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.6
Rochdale4 – 4Swindon
Swindon3 – 0Rochdale
Rochdale0 – 0Swindon
Swindon2 – 2Rochdale
Rochdale2 – 1Swindon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rochdalevs
Swindon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.4%→Latest 55.1%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 58.7%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Rochdale's 10 matches and 2 of Swindon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?