Shrewsbury vs Northampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Croud Meadow
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.64
Draw
3.21
Away Win
2.76
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Shrewsbury
Northampton
Kian McMahon-Brown ⚽
8'
Kevin Berkoe ⚽
45'
Kian McMahon-Brown 🟨
57'
81'
🟨 Sam Chambers
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
11
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
5
16
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Shrewsbury (3-4-1-2)
William Michael Brook
S. Stubbs
W. Boyle
J. Ruffels
L. Hoole
T. Sang
J. Turner-Cooke
K. Berkoe
K. M. Brown
G. Lloyd
J. Davison
Northampton (4-4-2)
Z. Jeacock
J. Wormleighton
E. Moore
J. Guthrie
J. Maxwell
S. Hoskins
J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
T. Fornah
L. Briggs
H. Saunders
N. Opoku
Player Ratings ?
Shrewsbury
K. M. BrownM7.8
K. BerkoeM7.7
William Michael BrookG7.5
Northampton
E. MooreD6.9
J. WormleightonD6.7
J. GuthrieD6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Northampton
Northampton rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Northampton a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Northampton stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Northampton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Northampton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Northampton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Northampton have recorded two wins and two draws from their last five away outings, while Shrewsbury boast three victories and a single draw in their corresponding home sample of five matches. At home, Shrewsbury have scored in all five of their recent fixtures yet have also kept three clean sheets within that same span. Northampton rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. Northampton won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 21 April 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Shrewsbury's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Northampton a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Northampton
Northampton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Northampton win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. Shrewsbury remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Shrewsbury win
Latest market chance 35.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
34.0% → 35.7%
+1.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.2% → 29.9%
+0.7 pts
Northampton win
Latest market chance 34.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
36.8% → 34.4%
−2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Shrewsbury
Draw
Northampton
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ShrewsburyNorthampton
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
14th
5
Games Played
5
0.60
Points/Game
1.20
0.40
Goals/Game
0.60
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.60
13.2
Shots/Game
10.1
3.8
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Shrewsbury at home (4 matches) vs Northampton away (3 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
0.33
1.50
Goals/Game
0.33
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.33
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Shrewsbury
Home form
W
W
D
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Northampton
Away form
D
W
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Shrewsbury Wins
2
Draws
1
Northampton Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Northampton4 – 1Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury1 – 1Northampton
Northampton0 – 2Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury1 – 0Northampton
Northampton1 – 0Shrewsbury
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Shrewsburyvs
Northampton
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 43.0%→Latest 41.3%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 48.6%−1.4 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Shrewsbury's 10 matches and 5 of Northampton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?