Swindon vs Crewe Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

County Ground
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.54
Draw
3.42
Away Win
2.67
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Swindon edge attack, Crewe edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Crewe stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Swindon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Crewe stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Crewe stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Swindon have secured three victories from their last five outings at home, while Crewe have managed just a single win across their same number of away fixtures. The Robins have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical run of games. Crewe rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Swindon hold a slight advantage in attack. Crewe won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Swindon's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swindon win
Latest market chance 37.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.0% → 37.0%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 26.8%
±0.0 pts
Crewe win
Latest market chance 36.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.2% → 36.2%
±0.0 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Swindon
Crewe
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
3rd
9
Games Played
9
1.22
Points/Game
1.67
1.00
Goals/Game
1.22
1.44
Conceded/Game
0.78
9.1
Shots/Game
12.0
3.1
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Swindon at home (4 matches) vs Crewe away (4 matches)
2.50
Points/Game
1.50
2.25
Goals/Game
0.75
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
75%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swindon
Home form
L
W
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Crewe
Away form
L
W
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swindon Wins
1
Draws
2
Crewe Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
2026-02-212025-2026
Swindon1 – 2Crewe
2025-08-302025-2026
Crewe0 – 3Swindon
2025-01-112024-2025
Swindon0 – 0Crewe
2024-08-242024-2025
Crewe0 – 0Swindon
2024-01-132023-2024
Crewe2 – 1Swindon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swindon
vs
Crewe
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.70
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
76.8%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
54.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
34.1%
BTTSBoth teams score
58.9%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 54.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 58.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Swindon's 10 matches and 1 of Crewe's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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