York vs Gillingham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
York`s LNER Community Stadium
Sat 26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.57
Draw
4.48
Away Win
5.05
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
York
Gillingham
Joey Grey (Ollie Pearce) ⚽
2'
37'
🟨 Omar Beckles
45+1'
🟨 Robbie McKenzie
Joey Grey 🟨
45+3'
50'
🟨 Garath McCleary
60'
🟨 Zane Albarus
70'
🟥 Zane Albarus
jovan malcolm (Harry Boyes) ⚽
75'
Ollie Pearce (Harry Boyes) ⚽
79'
Match Statistics ?
65%
Ball Possession
35%
17
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Goal
0
4
Corner Kicks
2
8
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
0
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
York (3-4-2-1)
Alfie Shane McNally
R. Fallowfield
Z. Johnson
M. Kitching
J. Felix
O. Banks
A. Hunt
H. Boyes
J. Grey
A. Newby
O. Pearce
Gillingham (3-4-3)
O. Wright
A. Smith
O. Beckles
L. Dobbs
N. Freeman
J. Brophy
R. McKenzie
E. King
Ronan Hale
W. Goodwin
H. Waldock
Player Ratings ?
York
O. PearceF8.6
H. BoyesM8.6
J. GreyM8.0
Gillingham
J. DaleyD6.3
W. GoodwinF6.2
Ronan HaleF6.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. York edge attack, Gillingham edge recent form and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
York slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gillingham stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gillingham have managed just a solitary victory in their last five away fixtures, while York arrive at this League Two clash having secured four wins from their most recent five home outings. York have found the net in every one of their last five matches at home, yet they have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that same run. Gillingham rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while York hold a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2013. Over the 6-day comparison window, York's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points, while Gillingham's implied win probability has risen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from York
York's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a York win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
York win
Latest market chance 60.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
62.0% → 60.4%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
20.4% → 21.6%
+1.2 pts
Gillingham win
Latest market chance 18.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.6% → 18.0%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
York
Draw
Gillingham
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
YorkGillingham
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
4th
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
1.71
1.86
Goals/Game
1.57
1.43
Conceded/Game
0.86
16.9
Shots/Game
10.3
5.5
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
York at home (4 matches) vs Gillingham away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.25
3.00
Goals/Game
1.25
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.25
100%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
York
Home form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Gillingham
Away form
L
L
D
D
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
York Wins
0
Draws
4
Gillingham Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.6
York0 – 0Gillingham
Gillingham1 – 1York
Gillingham3 – 1York
York1 – 1Gillingham
Gillingham0 – 0York
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Yorkvs
Gillingham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.7%→Latest 58.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 55.7%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of York's 10 matches and 3 of Gillingham's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?