York vs Northampton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
York Community Stadium
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.68
Draw
3.86
Away Win
4.63
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. York edge recent form and attack, Northampton edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
York stronger
HomeAway
Attack
York stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Northampton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Northampton stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Northampton have recorded two victories and a draw from their last five away outings, while York boast four wins in their corresponding home sample. York have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have kept just two clean sheets during that same span. York rate stronger on form and attack, while Northampton rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
45%
Northampton yellow cards after 75'
12
York points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
York win
Latest market chance 55.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
55.4% → 55.4%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.1% → 24.1%
±0.0 pts
Northampton win
Latest market chance 20.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.5% → 20.5%
±0.0 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
YorkNorthampton
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
22nd
8
Games Played
7
1.75
Points/Game
0.86
2.00
Goals/Game
0.43
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.86
16.9
Shots/Game
10.1
5.5
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
York at home (4 matches) vs Northampton away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.33
3.00
Goals/Game
0.33
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.33
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
York
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Northampton
Away form
W
W
L
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
York Wins
1
Draws
1
Northampton Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
York1 – 2Northampton
Northampton2 – 0York
Northampton3 – 0York
York1 – 1Northampton
Northampton0 – 2York
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Yorkvs
Northampton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.50
Goals conceded / game
0.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.4%→Latest 53.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 53.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of York's 10 matches and 3 of Northampton's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?