York vs Swindon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
York Community Stadium
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.64
Draw
4.20
Away Win
4.78
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
York
Swindon
Alex Newby ⚽
16'
Ollie Banks (Jeff King) ⚽
24'
67'
🟥 Mitchell Clark
Mark Kitching 🟨
69'
69'
🟨 I. Holloway
Alex Newby (Ollie Pearce) ⚽
72'
Ollie Pearce (Joseph Rabole Felix) ⚽
82'
87'
🟨 Daniel Butterworth
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
20
Total Shots
7
9
Shots on Goal
4
6
Corner Kicks
1
5
Fouls
15
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
York (3-4-2-1)
Alfie Shane McNally
R. Fallowfield
Z. Johnson
M. Kitching
J. King
A. Hunt
O. Banks
H. Boyes
J. Grey
A. Newby
O. Pearce
Swindon (4-3-3)
C. Ripley
M. Clark
S. Negru
K. Majekodunmi
D. Butler
A. Munda
J. Thomson
B. Middlemas
J. Snowdon
A. Drinan
B. Kirkman
Player Ratings ?
York
A. NewbyM9.1
O. PearceF8.7
O. BanksM8.2
Swindon
P. GlatzelF6.8
J. SnowdonF6.7
B. KirkmanF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. York edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Swindon edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swindon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
York stronger
HomeAway
Defence
York slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
York slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
York have secured three wins and drawn one of their last five home matches, while Swindon remain winless on the road with two draws and three defeats in their corresponding away sample. York have scored in all five of their recent home outings but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Swindon rate stronger on form, while York rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 1996. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
York win
Latest market chance 57.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
57.9% → 57.5%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.0% → 23.0%
±0.0 pts
Swindon win
Latest market chance 19.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
19.1% → 19.5%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
York
Draw
Swindon
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
YorkSwindon
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
2nd
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
2.00
1.80
Goals/Game
1.60
1.60
Conceded/Game
1.20
16.9
Shots/Game
9.1
5.5
Shots on Target
3.1
Home vs Away Context
York at home (4 matches) vs Swindon away (5 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.20
3.00
Goals/Game
0.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.80
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
York
Home form
D
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Swindon
Away form
D
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
York Wins
1
Draws
0
Swindon Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
York2 – 0Swindon
Swindon3 – 0York
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Yorkvs
Swindon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.3%→Latest 59.8%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.5%→Latest 58.0%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of York's 10 matches and 5 of Swindon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?