Brest vs Paris SG Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Francis-Le-Blé
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
11.66
Draw
6.64
Away Win
1.24
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Brest
Paris SG
5'
⚽ Ferrán Torres (Ousmane Dembélé)
Kamory Doumbia 🟨
30'
84'
🟨 Vitinha
87'
🟨 Dro Fernández
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
16
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Goal
7
3
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Brest (4-2-3-1)
E. Selvik
K. Lala
R. Le Guen
G. Lloris
B. Locko
J. Chotard
H. Magnetti
G. Versini
K. Doumbia
P. Mboup
L. Ajorque
Paris SG (4-3-3)
M. Safonov
A. Hakimi
Marquinhos
W. Pacho
Nuno Mendes
W. Zaïre-Emery
Vitinha
João Neves
O. Dembélé
Ferran Torres
K. Kvaratskhelia
Player Ratings ?
Brest
E. SelvikG7.7
B. LockoD7.4
H. MagnettiM7.0
Paris SG
M. SafonovG8.5
Ferran TorresF8.0
A. HakimiD7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Paris SG
Paris SG rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Paris SG a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Paris SG have secured two wins from their last five away outings, while Brest remain winless at home with just three draws and two defeats in that same span. Brest have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. Four players are currently unavailable for Brest ahead of this fixture. Paris SG rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Paris SG won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 10 May 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Brest's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Brest's implied win probability has fallen by 4.1 percentage points, while Paris SG's implied win probability has risen by 6.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Paris SG a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Paris SG
Paris SG's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Paris SG win as more likely than it did 10 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brest win
Latest market chance 8.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
12.3% → 8.2%
−4.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
17.4% → 14.6%
−2.8 pts
Paris SG win
Latest market chance 77.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
70.3% → 77.2%
+6.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brest
Draw
Paris SG
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrestParis SG
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
15th
3
Games Played
3
1.67
Points/Game
0.67
2.00
Goals/Game
1.67
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
19.0
Shots/Game
21.2
5.8
Shots on Target
7.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Brest at home (2 matches) vs Paris SG away (4 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.75
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.25
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brest
Home form
L
D
L
D
D
Winless in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Paris SG
Away form
W
W
L
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brest Wins
0
Draws
1
Paris SG Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.8
Paris SG1 – 0Brest
Brest0 – 3Paris SG
Brest2 – 5Paris SG
Paris SG3 – 1Brest
Paris SG2 – 2Brest
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brestvs
Paris SG
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.80
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 68.4%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 52.6%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
7 of Brest's 10 matches and 7 of Paris SG's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?