Le Mans vs Lens Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
MMArena
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.81
Draw
4.24
Away Win
1.68
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Le Mans
Lens
Noa Boissé 🟨
15'
20'
🟨 Michaël Cuisance
Jean Vercruysse 🟨
28'
Adil Bourabaa ⚽
32'
38'
🟨 Andrija Bulatović
Lucas Calodat (Adil Bourabaa) ⚽
44'
45+2'
⚽ Abdallah Sima
51'
⚽ Franjo Ivanovic (Ruben Aguilar)
53'
🟨 Florian Thauvin
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
13
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
9
17
Fouls
11
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Le Mans (3-1-4-2)
E. Hatfout
N. Boissé
S. Yohou
H. Voyer
L. Bretelle
R. Bamba
A. Bourabaa
J. Vercruysse
L. Calodat
L. Mafouta
D. Guèye
Lens (3-4-2-1)
R. Risser
J. Gradit
K. Antonio
M. Udol
R. Aguilar
M. Cuisance
A. Bulatović
M. Skóraś
A. Sima
F. Thauvin
O. Édouard
Player Ratings ?
Le Mans
A. BourabaaM8.0
L. CalodatM7.8
S. YohouD7.0
Lens
F. IvanovićF8.1
R. AguilarM7.7
A. SimaM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lens edge recent form, attack and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lens slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lens stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lens slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lens have recorded just one win from their last five away outings across multiple seasons, while Le Mans have secured two victories in their last five home fixtures spanning different campaigns. At home, Le Mans have found the net in all five of their recent matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same stretch. Both squads face significant selection issues with Le Mans having six players unavailable and Lens facing five absences ahead of kickoff. Lens rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form and defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2019. Over the 10-day comparison window, Le Mans's implied win probability has risen by 2.0 percentage points, while Lens's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Lens
Lens's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lens win as less likely than it did 10 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Le Mans win
Latest market chance 20.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
18.0% → 20.0%
+2.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.1% → 22.8%
+0.7 pts
Lens win
Latest market chance 57.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
60.0% → 57.2%
−2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Le Mans
Draw
Lens
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Le MansLens
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
11th
3
Games Played
3
0.67
Points/Game
1.00
1.67
Goals/Game
2.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
10.4
Shots/Game
14.8
5.0
Shots on Target
6.4
Home vs Away Context
Le Mans at home (3 matches) vs Lens away (3 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
0.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.33
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
33%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Le Mans
Home form
D
W
L
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lens
Away form
L
D
D
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Le Mans Wins
2
Draws
1
Lens Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Le Mans1 – 2Lens
Le Mans2 – 1Lens
Lens2 – 2Le Mans
Lens1 – 3Le Mans
Le Mans0 – 1Lens
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Le Mansvs
Lens
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.3%→Latest 58.3%+1.0 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 56.7%+2.2 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Le Mans's 10 matches and 7 of Lens's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?