Lorient vs Toulouse Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade du Moustoir
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.60
Draw
3.30
Away Win
2.90
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Lorient
Toulouse
Panos Katseris 🟨
17'
Ibrahima Balde (Panos Katseris) ⚽
37'
Noah Mbamba (Panos Katseris) ⚽
39'
48'
⚽ Casper Tengstedt (Cristian Casseres)
68'
⚽ Thomas Jorgensen (Cristian Casseres)
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
10
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
3
8
Fouls
18
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Lorient (3-4-2-1)
Y. Mvogo
D. Sylla
M. Talbi
N. Adjei
P. Katseris
N. Cadiou
N. Mbamba
K. Kouassi
G. Bernardeau
J. Makengo
I. Baldé
Toulouse (4-2-3-1)
M. Niflore
R. Messali
S. Koumbassa
M. McKenzie
C. Tapé
N. Schmidt
C. Cásseres
S. Hidalgo
T. Jørgensen
Y. Azizi
J. Russell-Rowe
Player Ratings ?
Lorient
N. MbambaM7.9
I. BaldéF7.8
P. KatserisM7.1
Toulouse
C. CásseresM8.6
C. TengstedtF7.5
T. JørgensenM7.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lorient edge recent form, attack and defence, Toulouse edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lorient stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lorient slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lorient stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toulouse have managed just one win from their last five away fixtures, while Lorient's home record over the same span is equally modest with only a solitary victory to show. Lorient have scored in four of their last five home matches but have managed just one clean sheet during that period. Lorient rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Toulouse rate stronger on head-to-head. Toulouse won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Lorient's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 9-day comparison window, Lorient's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, while Toulouse's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 9 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lorient win
Latest market chance 37.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
37.1% → 37.2%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.8% → 29.1%
−0.7 pts
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 33.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
33.1% → 33.7%
+0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lorient
Draw
Toulouse
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LorientToulouse
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
17th
3
Games Played
3
1.33
Points/Game
0.33
0.67
Goals/Game
0.67
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.67
10.4
Shots/Game
14.8
3.2
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Lorient at home (2 matches) vs Toulouse away (2 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
2.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lorient
Home form
D
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Toulouse
Away form
L
L
W
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lorient Wins
0
Draws
2
Toulouse Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.8
Toulouse1 – 0Lorient
Lorient1 – 1Toulouse
Lorient1 – 2Toulouse
Toulouse1 – 1Lorient
Lorient0 – 1Toulouse
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lorientvs
Toulouse
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.0%→Latest 49.0%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.1%→Latest 54.5%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Lorient's 10 matches and 7 of Toulouse's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?