Monaco vs Lens Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Louis II
Fri 18 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.09
Draw
3.73
Away Win
3.47
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Monaco
Lens
Paris Brunner (Matthis Abline) ⚽
32'
53'
🟨 Florian Thauvin
57'
⚽ Matthieu Udol (Florian Thauvin)
Lamine Camara 🟨
71'
Jonathan Gradit ⚽ (OG)
84'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
9
Total Shots
12
6
Shots on Goal
4
2
Corner Kicks
8
13
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Monaco (4-4-2)
L. Hrádecký
Vanderson
Sadibou Sané
E. Dier
Flávio Nazinho
E. Diop
L. Camara
D. Zakaria
A. Golovin
M. Abline
Paris Josua Brunner
Lens (3-4-2-1)
R. Risser
K. Antonio
J. Todibo
M. Udol
R. Aguilar
M. Cuisance
A. Haidara
J. Kadile
F. Thauvin
Mezian Mesloub
A. Sima
Player Ratings ?
Monaco
Paris Josua BrunnerF7.9
M. AblineF7.2
VandersonD7.0
Lens
M. UdolD7.5
R. RisserG6.9
K. AntonioD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Monaco edge recent form, Lens edge attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Monaco slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lens stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lens slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lens slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Monaco have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Lens have managed just a solitary win across their last five away fixtures. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home, though they have kept two clean sheets during that same period. Monaco face six confirmed absences alongside one doubtful player, whereas Lens have confirmed five out-counts with no doubts remaining. Monaco hold a slight advantage in form, while Lens rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in defence and head-to-head. Monaco won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 21 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Lens's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Monaco's implied win probability has risen by 5.5 percentage points, while Lens's implied win probability has fallen by 5.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Monaco
Monaco's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Monaco win as more likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Monaco win
Latest market chance 46.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.3% → 46.5%
+5.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.8% → 25.7%
−0.1 pts
Lens win
Latest market chance 27.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
32.9% → 27.8%
−5.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Monaco
Draw
Lens
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MonacoLens
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
10th
4
Games Played
4
2.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.50
Goals/Game
2.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.75
10.2
Shots/Game
14.8
4.6
Shots on Target
6.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Monaco at home (2 matches) vs Lens away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.33
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Monaco
Home form
W
W
D
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lens
Away form
D
D
W
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Monaco Wins
2
Draws
1
Lens Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.2
Lens2 – 3Monaco
Monaco1 – 4Lens
Lens4 – 0Monaco
Monaco1 – 1Lens
Lens2 – 3Monaco
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Monacovs
Lens
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.9%→Latest 60.3%−1.6 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.9%→Latest 62.5%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Monaco's 10 matches and 6 of Lens's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?