Monaco vs Toulouse Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Louis II
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.61
Draw
4.48
Away Win
5.18
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Monaco edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Monaco slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Monaco arrive at home with a sturdy record of three wins and just one defeat from their last five outings, while Toulouse have managed only a solitary victory in the same span away from home. At home, Monaco have found the net in four of their last five matches but have managed to keep a clean sheet just once during that identical period. Monaco rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Monaco's implied win probability has risen by 5.8 percentage points, while Toulouse's implied win probability has fallen by 3.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Monaco
No current absences reported
Toulouse
No current absences reported
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Monaco
Monaco's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Monaco win as more likely than it did 23 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Monaco win
Latest market chance 58.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
52.7% → 58.5%
+5.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.4% → 22.5%
−1.9 pts
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 19.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
22.9% → 19.0%
−3.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Monaco
Draw
Toulouse
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MonacoToulouse
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
13th
5
Games Played
5
2.60
Points/Game
1.00
1.60
Goals/Game
1.40
0.60
Conceded/Game
1.80
10.2
Shots/Game
14.8
4.6
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Monaco at home (2 matches) vs Toulouse away (2 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
2.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
100%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Monaco
Home form
W
D
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Toulouse
Away form
L
W
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Monaco Wins
2
Draws
2
Toulouse Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Toulouse2 – 2Monaco
Monaco1 – 0Toulouse
Toulouse1 – 1Monaco
Monaco2 – 0Toulouse
Monaco1 – 2Toulouse
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Monacovs
Toulouse
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 58.6%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 57.1%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Monaco's 10 matches and 5 of Toulouse's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?