Paris SG vs Le Mans Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parc des Princes
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.08
Draw
13.82
Away Win
23.16
Match Prediction
Data favours
Paris SG
Paris SG rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Paris SG a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Paris SG have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five home outings, while Le Mans have managed just two draws and three losses in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. The hosts have found the net in each of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that identical run. Paris SG rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2010. Over the 23-day comparison window, Paris SG's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Le Mans's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Paris SG a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Paris SG
No current absences reported
Le Mans
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Paris SG
Paris SG's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Paris SG win as more likely than it did 23 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Paris SG win
Latest market chance 89.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
87.9% → 89.4%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 7.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
7.7% → 7.0%
−0.7 pts
Le Mans win
Latest market chance 3.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
4.3% → 3.5%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Paris SG
Draw
Le Mans
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 23 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Paris SGLe Mans
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
9th
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
1.20
1.60
Goals/Game
1.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.80
21.2
Shots/Game
10.4
7.2
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Paris SG at home (1 match) vs Le Mans away (2 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
0.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Paris SG
Home form
L
W
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Le Mans
Away form
D
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Paris SG Wins
3
Draws
1
Le Mans Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Le Mans1 – 0Paris SG
Paris SG3 – 1Le Mans
Le Mans0 – 1Paris SG
Paris SG3 – 1Le Mans
Paris SG0 – 0Le Mans
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Paris SGvs
Le Mans
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 78.3%→Latest 77.9%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.9%→Latest 44.7%−4.2 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Paris SG's 10 matches and 5 of Le Mans's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?