Rennes vs Marseille Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Roazhon Park
Fri 11 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.10
Draw
3.96
Away Win
3.28
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Rennes
Marseille
33'
🟨 Himad Abdelli
Przemysław Frankowski 🟨
43'
43'
🟨 Igor Paixão
Adrien Thomasson ⚽
52'
85'
🟨 Amine Harit
90+4'
🟨 Timothy Weah
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
20
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
5
15
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Rennes (4-3-3)
B. Samba
P. Frankowski
C. Cresswell
A. Rouault
M. Nagida
M. Camara
V. Rongier
A. Thomasson
L. Blas
E. Lepaul
I. Soumaré
Marseille (4-2-3-1)
J. de Lange
T. Weah
C. Egan-Riley
N. Aguerd
Emerson
H. Abdelli
P. Højbjerg
A. Harit
A. Gomes
Igor Paixão
A. Gouiri
Player Ratings ?
Rennes
A. ThomassonM8.2
B. SambaG7.7
V. RongierM7.2
Marseille
J. de LangeG7.7
EmersonD7.3
C. Egan-RileyD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rennes edge recent form and attack, Marseille edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Rennes stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rennes stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Marseille slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Marseille arrive at this Ligue 1 fixture with a poor away record, having secured just one victory in their last five outings across seasons, while Rennes look significantly more stable domestically with four wins and no defeats from the same number of home matches. At home, Rennes have found the net in every one of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical span. Rennes rate stronger on form and attack, while Marseille rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Marseille won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 17 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Rennes's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 8-day comparison window, Rennes's implied win probability has risen by 4.4 percentage points, while Marseille's implied win probability has fallen by 4.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Marseille
Marseille's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Marseille win as less likely than it did 8 days ago. Rennes remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rennes win
Latest market chance 45.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.0% → 45.4%
+4.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.4% → 24.8%
+0.4 pts
Marseille win
Latest market chance 29.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
34.6% → 29.8%
−4.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rennes
Draw
Marseille
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 8 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RennesMarseille
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
11th
3
Games Played
3
2.33
Points/Game
1.00
2.33
Goals/Game
2.00
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.67
16.2
Shots/Game
13.2
5.4
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Rennes at home (3 matches) vs Marseille away (2 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.00
2.00
Goals/Game
0.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.50
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rennes
Home form
W
W
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Marseille
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rennes Wins
2
Draws
0
Marseille Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Marseille3 – 1Rennes
Rennes1 – 0Marseille
Marseille4 – 2Rennes
Rennes1 – 2Marseille
Rennes2 – 0Marseille
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rennesvs
Marseille
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.50
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 62.0%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.6%→Latest 63.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
7 of Rennes's 10 matches and 7 of Marseille's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?