Red Star vs Metz Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Bauer
Mon 14 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.42
Draw
3.29
Away Win
3.05
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Red Star
Metz
Samuel Renel 🟨
37'
Jovany Ikanga A Ngele ⚽ (P)
58'
Kevin Cabral 🟨
60'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
19
Total Shots
11
7
Shots on Goal
1
9
Corner Kicks
2
26
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Red Star (4-2-3-1)
G. Poussin
T. Magnin
D. Durivaux
E. Zidane
M. Huard
I. Halifa
S. Renel
K. Cissé
S. Khaoui
J. Ikanga A Ngele
K. Cabral
Metz (4-2-3-1)
J. Fischer
B. Sarr
C. Devenish
U. Mboula
M. Colin
B. Munongo
J. Deminguet
J. Pandore
T. Savanier
G. Abuashvili
P. Fall
Player Ratings ?
Red Star
G. KyeremehF7.3
M. HuardD7.2
J. Ikanga A NgeleM7.0
Metz
J. FischerG7.8
T. SavanierM6.8
F. MiguelD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Metz edge defence and head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Metz slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Metz stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Metz have secured two away victories from their last five outings across seasons, while Red Star have also recorded two home wins in their corresponding five-match sample. Red Star have found the net in four of their last five home matches, though they have kept just one clean sheet in that same period. Metz rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while form and attack are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2025, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Red Star's implied win probability has risen by 3.7 percentage points, while Metz's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Red Star
Red Star's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Red Star win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Red Star win
Latest market chance 39.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
35.8% → 39.5%
+3.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.2% → 29.1%
−0.1 pts
Metz win
Latest market chance 31.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
35.0% → 31.4%
−3.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Red Star
Draw
Metz
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Red StarMetz
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
5th
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
1.80
1.00
Goals/Game
1.60
1.20
Conceded/Game
0.80
15.7
Shots/Game
13.6
5.1
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Red Star at home (3 matches) vs Metz away (3 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
0.67
0.67
Goals/Game
0.33
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
33%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Red Star
Home form
W
W
D
D
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Metz
Away form
W
L
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Red Star Wins
1
Draws
1
Metz Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Metz2 – 2Red Star
Red Star1 – 0Metz
Red Star1 – 2Metz
Metz2 – 0Red Star
Metz2 – 0Red Star
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Red Starvs
Metz
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.4%→Latest 46.9%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 52.7%−3.1 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Red Star's 10 matches and 5 of Metz's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?