Altrincham vs Hartlepool Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Moss Lane
Wed 16 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.35
Draw
3.51
Away Win
2.91
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Altrincham
Hartlepool
24'
🟨 J. Hunter
K. Hemmings ⚽ (P)
28'
41'
🟨 J. Miley
43'
⚽ J. Miley (B. Ilunga)
K. Hemmings 🟨
58'
60'
🟨 C. Deeming
72'
🟨 J. Hunter
72'
🟥 J. Hunter
T. Crawford (L. Humbles) ⚽
81'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Altrincham edge recent form, Hartlepool edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Altrincham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hartlepool stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Altrincham have secured four victories from their last five home outings, whereas Hartlepool have managed just a solitary win in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. At home, Altrincham have found the net in all five of their recent matches while keeping a clean sheet in only one of that identical sample. Altrincham rate stronger on form, while Hartlepool rate stronger on head-to-head. Hartlepool won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 17 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Altrincham's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, Altrincham's implied win probability has risen by 0.2 percentage points, while Hartlepool's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Altrincham losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Hartlepool points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Hartlepool
Hartlepool's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Hartlepool win as less likely than it did 2 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Altrincham remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Altrincham win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.4% → 40.6%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.3% → 27.2%
+0.9 pts
Hartlepool win
Latest market chance 32.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
33.2% → 32.2%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Altrincham
Draw
Hartlepool
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AltrinchamHartlepool
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
15th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.29
1.14
Goals/Game
0.71
1.86
Conceded/Game
0.86
6.7
Shots/Game
7.3
3.6
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Altrincham at home (5 matches) vs Hartlepool away (6 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
0.50
2.00
Goals/Game
0.67
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.83
80%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Altrincham
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hartlepool
Away form
L
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Altrincham Wins
1
Draws
1
Hartlepool Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.6
Hartlepool1 – 0Altrincham
Altrincham0 – 2Hartlepool
Hartlepool1 – 2Altrincham
Altrincham1 – 1Hartlepool
Hartlepool3 – 2Altrincham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Altrinchamvs
Hartlepool
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.2%→Latest 50.5%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.3%→Latest 55.6%−1.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Altrincham's 10 matches and 3 of Hartlepool's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?