Carlisle vs Southend Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Brunton Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 17:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.31
Draw
3.58
Away Win
2.91
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Carlisle
Southend
G. Kelly (D. Ajiboye) ⚽
4'
7'
🟨 K. McAdam
43'
🟨 V. Daley-Campbell
53'
🟨 H. Cardwell
L. Duru 🟨
62'
83'
⚽ L. Chambers-Parillon (P. Omochere)
90+2'
⚽ K. McAdam
90+4'
🟨 P. Omochere
G. Kelly (M. Feeney) ⚽
90+6'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Carlisle edge head-to-head, Southend edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southend stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Carlisle stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Carlisle have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Southend have recorded two wins in their away fixtures over the same span. Carlisle have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have managed just one clean sheet during that period. Southend rate stronger on form, while Carlisle rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Carlisle win
Latest market chance 41.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
41.1% → 41.0%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.4%
−0.2 pts
Southend win
Latest market chance 32.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.4% → 32.6%
+0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Carlisle
Draw
Southend
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CarlisleSouthend
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
4th
6
Games Played
6
1.33
Points/Game
2.17
2.17
Goals/Game
2.00
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.33
12.2
Shots/Game
11.4
6.3
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Carlisle at home (6 matches) vs Southend away (6 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
2.00
2.50
Goals/Game
2.67
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.17
33%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Carlisle
Home form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Southend
Away form
L
L
W
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Carlisle Wins
3
Draws
1
Southend Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.6
Carlisle2 – 2Southend
Southend1 – 2Carlisle
Southend0 – 2Carlisle
Carlisle2 – 0Southend
Southend2 – 0Carlisle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Carlislevs
Southend
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
2.30
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.1%→Latest 57.8%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.0%→Latest 61.1%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Carlisle's 10 matches and 4 of Southend's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?