Gateshead vs Southend Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Gateshead International Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
5.50
Draw
4.33
Away Win
1.54
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 6
Match Events ?
Gateshead
Southend
6'
⚽ H. Cardwell (Z. Massiah-Edwards)
8'
⚽ K. McAdam (Z. Massiah-Edwards)
19'
⚽ S. Austin (V. Daley-Campbell)
26'
🟨 O. Coker
40'
⚽ H. Cardwell
42'
⚽ S. Austin
45+2'
⚽ S. Austin
R. Coyle 🟨
82'
D. Eguaibor ⚽
89'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Southend stronger
Southend rate stronger across every available category. They lead recent form and head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Southend stronger.
Leads 2 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Southend stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Southend slightly stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Southend have secured two wins and drawn twice in their last five away fixtures across multiple seasons, while Gateshead have recorded two victories at home alongside a single draw in that same span. Gateshead have found the net in three of their last five home matches and kept two clean sheets during that period. Southend rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 10 March 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, Gateshead's implied win probability has fallen by 4.8 percentage points, while Southend's implied win probability has risen by 7.0 percentage points. The statistical comparison rates Southend stronger overall.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Southend
Southend's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Southend win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Gateshead win
Latest market chance 16.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
21.7% → 16.9%
−4.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.6% → 22.3%
−2.3 pts
Southend win
Latest market chance 60.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
53.8% → 60.8%
+7.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Gateshead
Draw
Southend
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GatesheadSouthend
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
3rd
8
Games Played
8
0.50
Points/Game
2.13
0.62
Goals/Game
2.12
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.38
6.1
Shots/Game
11.4
3.2
Shots on Target
6.6
Home vs Away Context
Gateshead at home (6 matches) vs Southend away (6 matches)
0.67
Points/Game
2.00
0.83
Goals/Game
2.67
1.83
Conceded/Game
1.17
17%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Gateshead
Home form
W
L
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Southend
Away form
L
W
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Gateshead Wins
2
Draws
2
Southend Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Southend1 – 1Gateshead
Gateshead0 – 3Southend
Gateshead0 – 0Southend
Southend1 – 3Gateshead
Southend0 – 1Gateshead
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Gatesheadvs
Southend
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.90
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
5/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 56.3%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.3%→Latest 52.7%−4.6 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Gateshead's 10 matches and 2 of Southend's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?