Harrogate vs Hornchurch Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Exercise Stadium
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.58
Draw
4.21
Away Win
5.33
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Harrogate
Hornchurch
27'
🟨 A. Rowe
B. Dolaghan (B. Dolaghan) •
28'
M. Williams ⚽
36'
W. McGowan (E. Bristow) ⚽
60'
L. Cass (E. Bristow) ⚽
65'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Not enough data available for a statistical comparison on this fixture yet.
Match Analysis
Harrogate have secured three wins and a draw from their last five home outings, whereas Hornchurch have managed just a solitary victory in five away fixtures during this current season. At home, Harrogate have found the net in all five of their most recent matches while failing to keep a clean sheet in that same run. Harrogate rate stronger on form. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Hornchurch losing run
3
Hornchurch points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Harrogate win
Latest market chance 59.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
59.1% → 59.6%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.9% → 22.6%
−0.3 pts
Hornchurch win
Latest market chance 17.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
17.9% → 17.8%
−0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Harrogate
Draw
Hornchurch
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HarrogateHornchurch
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
10th
11
Games Played
11
2.00
Points/Game
1.64
2.27
Goals/Game
1.18
1.55
Conceded/Game
1.45
12.3
Shots/Game
8.3
7.3
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Harrogate at home (7 matches) vs Hornchurch away (7 matches)
2.29
Points/Game
0.86
2.86
Goals/Game
0.86
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.43
71%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Harrogate
Home form
D
W
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hornchurch
Away form
L
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
No previous meetings on record between Harrogate and Hornchurch.
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Harrogatevs
Hornchurch
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.60
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 57.3%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 55.0%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?