Hartlepool vs Tamworth Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Victoria Park
Sat 03 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.31
Draw
3.77
Away Win
2.84
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Hartlepool
Tamworth
J. Nolan (J. Nolan) •
20'
42'
⚽ K. Donnelly (H. Carson)
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Tamworth stronger
Tamworth rate stronger in recent form; Hartlepool edge head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Tamworth stronger.
Leads 1 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Tamworth stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Hartlepool stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Tamworth arrive with a poor away record, having lost all five of their recent outings on the road, while Hartlepool have recorded two victories from their last five home fixtures. Hartlepool have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have also kept two clean sheets in that same period. Tamworth rate stronger on form, while Hartlepool rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 7 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 4 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.25 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Hartlepool's implied win probability has fallen by 0.4 percentage points, while Tamworth's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The statistical comparison rates Tamworth stronger overall.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Hartlepool losing run
0
Tamworth points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Hartlepool win
Latest market chance 41.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
41.3% → 41.3%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.0% → 25.9%
−0.1 pts
Tamworth win
Latest market chance 32.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.7% → 32.8%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Hartlepool
Draw
Tamworth
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
HartlepoolTamworth
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
20th
11
Games Played
11
0.82
Points/Game
1.00
0.73
Goals/Game
1.73
1.45
Conceded/Game
2.55
7.3
Shots/Game
11.3
3.6
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Hartlepool at home (6 matches) vs Tamworth away (7 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.57
0.67
Goals/Game
1.43
1.00
Conceded/Game
3.00
33%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Hartlepool
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Tamworth
Away form
L
L
L
L
L
Lost 5 straight away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Hartlepool Wins
1
Draws
3
Tamworth Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.2
Tamworth1 – 1Hartlepool
Hartlepool1 – 1Tamworth
Hartlepool2 – 2Tamworth
Tamworth0 – 1Hartlepool
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Hartlepoolvs
Tamworth
Recent Scoring Profile
0.60
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded / game
2.50
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
9/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.1%→Latest 59.0%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 62.4%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?