Tamworth vs Sutton Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Lamb Ground
Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.32
Draw
3.67
Away Win
2.89
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Tamworth
Sutton
T. Kurtaran 🟨
29'
39'
🟨 J. Taylor
K. Donnelly ⚽
47'
J. Cullinane-Liburd 🟨
49'
E. Osadebe ⚽ (OG)
52'
81'
🟨 E. Osadebe
M. Roberts 🟨
87'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Sutton stronger
Sutton rate stronger in recent form; Tamworth edge head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Sutton stronger.
Leads 1 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sutton stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Tamworth stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Sutton arrive at Tamworth having recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Tamworth have secured three victories in that same span at home. Tamworth have found the net in each of their last five home matches, though they have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that identical run. Sutton rate stronger on form, while Tamworth rate stronger on head-to-head. Sutton won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 24 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 4 encounters to Tamworth's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.75 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 3-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The statistical comparison rates Sutton stronger overall.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Sutton unbeaten run
3/4
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 3 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Tamworth win
Latest market chance 41.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.6% → 41.1%
+0.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.1% → 25.6%
−0.5 pts
Sutton win
Latest market chance 33.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
33.2% → 33.3%
+0.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Tamworth
Draw
Sutton
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
TamworthSutton
Season Profile
This season
22nd
League Position
11th
10
Games Played
10
0.80
Points/Game
1.70
1.70
Goals/Game
1.30
2.80
Conceded/Game
1.30
11.3
Shots/Game
6.2
5.4
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Tamworth at home (5 matches) vs Sutton away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.17
60%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Tamworth
Home form
W
L
W
D
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sutton
Away form
L
W
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Tamworth Wins
2
Draws
1
Sutton Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.8
Tamworth0 – 1Sutton
Sutton2 – 3Tamworth
Sutton1 – 2Tamworth
Tamworth1 – 1Sutton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Tamworthvs
Sutton
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.30
2.80
Goals conceded / game
1.30
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 59.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.0%→Latest 61.8%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?