Arsenal vs Chelsea Head to Head, Prediction
Emirates Stadium
Sun 06 Sep 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.70
Draw
3.92
Away Win
5.17
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Arsenal
Chelsea
2'
⚽ M. Rogers (J. Hato)
14'
🟨 João Pedro
K. Havertz (D. Rice) ⚽
25'
45'
🟨 Cole Palmer
M. Odegaard (C. Tzolis) ⚽
50'
Christos Tzolis 🟨
58'
58'
🟨 Maxence Lacroix
83'
🟨 Morgan Rogers
Mikel Merino 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
16
Total Shots
13
9
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
3
13
Fouls
16
2
Yellow Cards
4
3
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
8
Starting Lineups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
D. Raya
B. White
E. Konsa
Gabriel
R. Calafiori
D. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka
M. Odegaard
C. Tzolis
K. Havertz
Chelsea (3-4-2-1)
E. Martinez
J. Acheampong
M. Lacroix
W. Fofana
P. Neto
R. Lavia
R. James
J. Hato
C. Palmer
M. Rogers
Joao Pedro
Player Ratings ?
Arsenal
Martin ØdegaardM9.3
Kai HavertzF7.9
Declan RiceM7.6
Chelsea
Emiliano MartínezG8.5
Wesley FofanaD7.3
Morgan RogersF7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arsenal
Arsenal rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Arsenal a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Chelsea
Chelsea's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chelsea win as more likely than it did 7 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Arsenal remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arsenal win
Latest market chance 56.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
56.7% → 56.1%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.6% → 24.8%
−0.8 pts
Chelsea win
Latest market chance 19.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
17.7% → 19.1%
+1.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Arsenal
Draw
Chelsea
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ArsenalChelsea
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
4th
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Points/Game
3.00
2.00
Goals/Game
3.50
0.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
13.0
Shots/Game
14.4
4.8
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Arsenal at home (2 matches) vs Chelsea away (3 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.50
Goals/Game
1.33
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.33
100%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Arsenal
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chelsea
Away form
L
L
D
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arsenal Wins
3
Draws
2
Chelsea Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
Arsenal2 – 1Chelsea
Chelsea1 – 1Arsenal
Arsenal1 – 0Chelsea
Chelsea1 – 1Arsenal
Arsenal5 – 0Chelsea
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Arsenalvs
Chelsea
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.50
Goals conceded / game
2.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 56.2%+4.6 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 56.0%+4.0 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
8 of Arsenal's 10 matches and 8 of Chelsea's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?