Aston Villa vs Brentford Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Villa Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.69
Draw
3.61
Away Win
2.60
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Brentford edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Brentford slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brentford stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Brentford have drawn three and lost two of their last five away fixtures, while Aston Villa have secured two victories but suffered three defeats in their corresponding home outings over the same span. Aston Villa have found the net in four of their last five matches at home yet have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical sample period. Brentford rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Brentford won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 1 February 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Aston Villa's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 27-day comparison window, Aston Villa's implied win probability has risen by 2.5 percentage points, while Brentford's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
60%
Aston Villa yellow cards after 75'
3
Brentford points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Aston Villa
No current absences reported
Brentford
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Aston Villa
Aston Villa's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Aston Villa win as more likely than it did 27 days ago. Brentford remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 35.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
33.3% → 35.8%
+2.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.3% → 27.1%
−0.2 pts
Brentford win
Latest market chance 37.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
39.4% → 37.1%
−2.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Aston Villa
Draw
Brentford
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 27 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Aston VillaBrentford
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
4th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
1.80
0.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.80
Conceded/Game
0.80
9.6
Shots/Game
16.2
2.4
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Aston Villa at home (2 matches) vs Brentford away (2 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
1.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
0%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Aston Villa
Home form
W
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Brentford
Away form
L
L
D
D
D
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Aston Villa Wins
2
Draws
1
Brentford Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.6
Aston Villa0 – 1Brentford
Brentford1 – 0Aston Villa
Brentford0 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa3 – 1Brentford
Aston Villa3 – 3Brentford
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aston Villavs
Brentford
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 56.6%+1.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 60.5%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Aston Villa's 10 matches and 5 of Brentford's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?