Bournemouth vs Liverpool Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Vitality Stadium
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.22
Draw
3.81
Away Win
2.17
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Bournemouth
Liverpool
46'
🟨 Dominik Szoboszlai
57'
⚽ Alexander Isak
58'
🟨 Alexander Isak
Antonio Silva 🟨
81'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
9
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Goal
3
3
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Đ. Petrović
A. Smith
J. Hill
António Silva
A. Truffert
T. Adams
A. Scott
Rayan
R. Christie
M. Tavernier
Evanilson
Liverpool (4-2-3-1)
Alisson Becker
R. Araújo
J. Jacquet
V. van Dijk
M. Kerkez
D. Szoboszlai
A. Mac Allister
C. Gakpo
F. Wirtz
B. Barcola
A. Isak
Player Ratings ?
Bournemouth
António SilvaD6.7
B. DoakF6.7
J. HillD6.6
Liverpool
A. IsakF7.5
V. van DijkD7.3
Alisson BeckerG7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Bournemouth edge defence, Liverpool edge head-to-head, recent form and attack are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Bournemouth slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Liverpool stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Liverpool have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away fixtures, while Bournemouth remain unbeaten at home with four draws in that same span. Bournemouth have scored in each of their last five home matches but have only kept a single clean sheet in that run. Three Bournemouth players are confirmed out with one doubtful, while Liverpool face four absences and one doubt ahead of the clash. Bournemouth hold a slight advantage in defence, while Liverpool rate stronger on head-to-head, while form and attack are closely matched. Bournemouth won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 24 January 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Liverpool's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 13-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 13 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Bournemouth win
Latest market chance 30.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.7% → 30.6%
−0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.4% → 25.3%
−0.1 pts
Liverpool win
Latest market chance 44.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.9% → 44.1%
+0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Bournemouth
Draw
Liverpool
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BournemouthLiverpool
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
10th
4
Games Played
4
0.75
Points/Game
1.50
1.50
Goals/Game
1.50
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.6
Shots/Game
15.2
5.2
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Bournemouth at home (3 matches) vs Liverpool away (3 matches)
0.67
Points/Game
2.33
1.00
Goals/Game
1.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.67
0%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Bournemouth
Home form
D
W
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Liverpool
Away form
W
L
L
D
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Bournemouth Wins
1
Draws
0
Liverpool Wins
4
Avg Goals
4.0
Bournemouth3 – 2Liverpool
Liverpool4 – 2Bournemouth
Bournemouth0 – 2Liverpool
Liverpool3 – 0Bournemouth
Bournemouth0 – 4Liverpool
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Bournemouthvs
Liverpool
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.3%→Latest 62.1%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.4%→Latest 64.5%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Bournemouth's 10 matches and 6 of Liverpool's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?