Brighton vs Arsenal Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
American Express Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.86
Draw
4.05
Away Win
1.71
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
Brighton
Arsenal
Pascal Groß (Charalampos Kostoulas) ⚽
31'
Charalampos Kostoulas 🟨
33'
Charalampos Kostoulas (Diego Gomez) ⚽
45'
Ferdi Kadıoğlu 🟨
45+1'
Chema Andrés (Pascal Groß) ⚽
57'
Pascal Struijk 🟨
71'
Maxim De Cuyper 🟨
90+1'
90+7'
🟨 Declan Rice
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
17
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
B. Verbruggen
F. Kadıoğlu
L. Vušković
P. Struijk
O. Boscagli
José María Andrés Baixauli
P. Groß
D. Gómez
Y. Ayari
M. De Cuyper
C. Kostoulas
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
David Raya
J. Timber
E. Konsa
Gabriel Magalhães
R. Calafiori
D. Rice
Bruno Guimarães
B. Saka
M. Ødegaard
C. Tzolis
K. Havertz
Player Ratings ?
Brighton
P. GroßM9.0
C. KostoulasF8.2
José María Andrés BaixauliM8.2
Arsenal
J. TimberD6.7
V. GyökeresF6.6
D. RiceM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Arsenal
Arsenal rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; Brighton edge attack, giving Arsenal a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arsenal stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Arsenal have secured four wins from their last five away fixtures without a single draw, while Brighton manage three victories and one draw in their corresponding home sample. Brighton have found the net in four of their last five home matches, though they have also kept three clean sheets during that same period. Seven Brighton players are unavailable alongside three doubts, whereas Arsenal face one absence and two doubtfuls ahead of this Premier League encounter. Arsenal rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Brighton rate stronger on attack. Arsenal won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 4 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Brighton's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Brighton's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points, while Arsenal's implied win probability has risen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Arsenal a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Arsenal unbeaten run
12
Arsenal points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Arsenal
Arsenal's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Arsenal win as more likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brighton win
Latest market chance 20.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
21.1% → 20.4%
−0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.6% → 23.6%
−2.0 pts
Arsenal win
Latest market chance 56.0%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
53.2% → 56.0%
+2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brighton
Draw
Arsenal
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrightonArsenal
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
1st
4
Games Played
4
1.75
Points/Game
3.00
3.25
Goals/Game
2.00
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.25
19.0
Shots/Game
13.0
5.8
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
Brighton at home (3 matches) vs Arsenal away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
2.00
2.67
Goals/Game
1.00
0.33
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brighton
Home form
W
W
L
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Arsenal
Away form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brighton Wins
0
Draws
2
Arsenal Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.2
Brighton0 – 1Arsenal
Arsenal2 – 1Brighton
Brighton1 – 1Arsenal
Arsenal1 – 1Brighton
Brighton0 – 3Arsenal
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brightonvs
Arsenal
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.40
Goals conceded / game
0.40
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.2%→Latest 54.9%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 53.4%→Latest 54.9%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
6 of Brighton's 10 matches and 6 of Arsenal's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?