Brighton vs Leeds Head to Head, Prediction
Amex Stadium
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.03
Draw
3.58
Away Win
3.80
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Brighton
Leeds
6'
🟨 Jayden Bogle
15'
⚽ J. Bogle (A. Tanaka)
Pascal Groß 🟨
38'
Maxim De Cuyper 🟨
49'
64'
🟨 Dominic Calvert-Lewin
L. Vuskovic (M. De Cuyper) ⚽
71'
85'
🟨 Harry Wilson
Promise David 🟨
88'
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
20
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Goal
5
7
Corner Kicks
6
13
Fouls
16
3
Yellow Cards
3
4
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
B. Verbruggen
F. Kadioglu
L. Vuskovic
L. Dunk
O. Boscagli
P. Gross
Y. Ayari
D. Gomez
M. Yalcouye
M. De Cuyper
C. Kostoulas
Leeds (3-5-2)
J. Trafford
J. Justin
N. Elvedi
T. Muharemovic
J. Bogle
A. Stach
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
D. Calvert-Lewin
N. Okafor
Player Ratings ?
Brighton
Bart VerbruggenG8.2
Luka VuškovićD8.0
Lewis DunkD7.9
Leeds
Dominic Calvert-LewinF7.3
Nico ElvediD7.0
Ao TanakaM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Brighton edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Leeds edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leeds stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brighton stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Brighton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brighton slightly stronger
HomeAway
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Brighton
Brighton's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Brighton win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brighton win
Latest market chance 48.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
51.9% → 48.0%
−3.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.9% → 26.9%
+1.0 pts
Leeds win
Latest market chance 25.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.2% → 25.1%
+2.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brighton
Draw
Leeds
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrightonLeeds
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
9th
2
Games Played
2
1.50
Points/Game
2.00
3.50
Goals/Game
1.00
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
19.0
Shots/Game
12.2
5.8
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Brighton at home (3 matches) vs Leeds away (2 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
2.00
2.67
Goals/Game
1.00
0.33
Conceded/Game
0.50
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brighton
Home form
W
W
W
L
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leeds
Away form
W
D
D
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brighton Wins
2
Draws
2
Leeds Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Leeds1 – 0Brighton
Brighton3 – 0Leeds
Leeds2 – 2Brighton
Brighton1 – 0Leeds
Leeds1 – 1Brighton
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brightonvs
Leeds
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded / game
0.90
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.9%→Latest 50.8%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 54.4%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
8 of Brighton's 10 matches and 8 of Leeds's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?