Chelsea vs Bournemouth Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stamford Bridge
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.74
Draw
4.17
Away Win
4.53
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Chelsea edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, Bournemouth edge defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chelsea slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chelsea slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Bournemouth stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Chelsea stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Bournemouth arrive with an encouraging record from their last five away fixtures, securing two wins and two draws alongside a solitary defeat, while Chelsea have managed just two victories in their corresponding home sample of the same length. The Blues have found the net in four of their last five home matches, yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical recent spell at this venue. Chelsea rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and attack, while Bournemouth rate stronger on defence. The most recent meeting, on 30 December 2025, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 27-day comparison window, Chelsea's implied win probability has risen by 3.1 percentage points, while Bournemouth's implied win probability has fallen by 2.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Chelsea
No current absences reported
Bournemouth
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Chelsea
Chelsea's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chelsea win as more likely than it did 27 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chelsea win
Latest market chance 54.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
51.8% → 54.9%
+3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.7% → 23.3%
−0.4 pts
Bournemouth win
Latest market chance 21.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.5% → 21.7%
−2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Chelsea
Draw
Bournemouth
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 27 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ChelseaBournemouth
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
17th
5
Games Played
5
1.40
Points/Game
0.60
2.00
Goals/Game
1.20
2.40
Conceded/Game
1.60
14.4
Shots/Game
13.6
5.2
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Chelsea at home (2 matches) vs Bournemouth away (2 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.50
3.00
Goals/Game
1.50
2.50
Conceded/Game
2.00
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chelsea
Home form
L
L
W
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Bournemouth
Away form
W
W
D
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chelsea Wins
2
Draws
3
Bournemouth Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.4
Chelsea2 – 2Bournemouth
Bournemouth0 – 0Chelsea
Chelsea2 – 2Bournemouth
Bournemouth0 – 1Chelsea
Chelsea2 – 1Bournemouth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chelseavs
Bournemouth
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.20
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 63.9%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.0%→Latest 63.2%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Chelsea's 10 matches and 5 of Bournemouth's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?