Leeds vs Newcastle Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Elland Road
Mon 14 Sep 2026 · 20:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.33
Draw
3.60
Away Win
3.07
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 1
Match Events ?
Leeds
Newcastle
Lewis Miley ⚽ (OG)
32'
Jayden Bogle (Dominic Calvert-Lewin) ⚽
34'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 🟨
44'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Tarik Muharemovic) ⚽
45+1'
54'
🟨 Jacob Murphy
Noah Okafor ⚽
59'
90'
⚽ Bazoumana Touré
90+1'
🟨 Valentino Livramento
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
15
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Goal
5
5
Corner Kicks
5
8
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Leeds (3-5-2)
J. Trafford
J. Justin
N. Elvedi
T. Muharemović
J. Bogle
A. Stach
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
D. Calvert-Lewin
N. Okafor
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
L. Horníček
A. Dedić
M. Thiaw
S. Botman
L. Hall
L. Miley
Nico González
J. Murphy
M. Fernandez-Pardo
H. Barnes
Y. Wissa
Player Ratings ?
Leeds
D. Calvert-LewinF8.4
J. BogleM8.0
N. OkaforF7.9
Newcastle
B. TouréF7.3
L. HallD6.4
Y. WissaF6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Leeds edge recent form, attack and defence, Newcastle edge head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Leeds stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Leeds slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Leeds stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leeds have enjoyed a solid run at home with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Newcastle have struggled away with just one win and one draw in that same span. The Whites have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept three clean sheets in that period. Both sides carry squad concerns, with Leeds having two players out and one doubtful while Newcastle face three absentees alongside two players under doubt. Leeds rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Newcastle rate stronger on head-to-head. Newcastle won the most recent meeting 4-3 on 7 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Leeds's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Leeds's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points, while Newcastle's implied win probability has fallen by 3.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Leeds
Leeds's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Leeds win as more likely than it did 10 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Leeds win
Latest market chance 41.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
38.0% → 41.3%
+3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.1% → 27.1%
±0.0 pts
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 31.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
34.9% → 31.7%
−3.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Leeds
Draw
Newcastle
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LeedsNewcastle
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
10th
3
Games Played
3
1.67
Points/Game
1.67
1.00
Goals/Game
2.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.33
12.2
Shots/Game
10.2
3.6
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Leeds at home (3 matches) vs Newcastle away (2 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.50
1.67
Goals/Game
1.50
0.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
33%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Leeds
Home form
D
W
W
W
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Newcastle
Away form
L
L
D
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Leeds Wins
0
Draws
3
Newcastle Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Newcastle4 – 3Leeds
Leeds0 – 0Newcastle
Leeds2 – 2Newcastle
Newcastle0 – 0Leeds
Leeds0 – 1Newcastle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Leedsvs
Newcastle
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.3%→Latest 53.4%−0.9 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.2%→Latest 57.6%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
7 of Leeds's 10 matches and 7 of Newcastle's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?