Man United vs Man City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Old Trafford
Sun 13 Sep 2026 · 16:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.13
Draw
3.81
Away Win
2.21
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Man United
Man City
23'
🟥 Phil Foden
45+1'
🟨 Vincenzo Maresca
60'
⚽ Erling Haaland
79'
🟨 Josko Gvardiol
80'
🟨 Enzo Fernández
Harry Maguire 🟨
81'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
16
Total Shots
6
3
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
7
17
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Man United (4-2-3-1)
S. Lammens
Diogo Dalot
H. Maguire
Lisandro Martínez
P. Dorgu
Y. Tielemans
K. Mainoo
B. Mbeumo
Bruno Fernandes
M. Rashford
Matheus Cunha
Man City (4-2-3-1)
G. Donnarumma
Matheus Nunes
M. Guéhi
Rúben Dias
J. Gvardiol
E. Fernández
E. Anderson
P. Foden
R. Cherki
A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Player Ratings ?
Man United
K. MainooM7.2
Bruno FernandesM7.2
P. DorguD6.9
Man City
E. HaalandF7.7
Rúben DiasD7.3
Matheus NunesD7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Man United edge attack and head-to-head, Man City edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Man City slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Man United slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Man City stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Man United stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Man City have enjoyed an encouraging run away from home with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Man United have secured four victories in only one defeat during the same span at home. The Red Devils have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet in that identical sample. Five players are unavailable for Man United, whereas the Citizens face one confirmed absence alongside one player listed as doubtful. Man City rate stronger on defence, with a slight advantage in form, while Man United rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Man United won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 17 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Man City's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Man United's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Man City's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Man City
Man City's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Man City win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Man United win
Latest market chance 30.9%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.0% → 30.9%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 25.3%
+0.2 pts
Man City win
Latest market chance 43.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
44.9% → 43.8%
−1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Man United
Draw
Man City
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Man UnitedMan City
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
2nd
3
Games Played
3
1.33
Points/Game
3.00
2.33
Goals/Game
2.33
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.67
22.6
Shots/Game
13.6
5.6
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Man United at home (2 matches) vs Man City away (2 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
3.00
2.50
Goals/Game
2.50
1.50
Conceded/Game
0.50
50%
Win Rate
100%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Man United
Home form
L
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
4 of these matches from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Man City
Away form
W
W
D
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Man United Wins
2
Draws
1
Man City Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
Man United2 – 0Man City
Man City3 – 0Man United
Man United0 – 0Man City
Man City1 – 2Man United
Man City3 – 1Man United
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Man Unitedvs
Man City
Recent Scoring Profile
2.00
Goals scored / game
2.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 61.6%→Latest 61.9%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.4%→Latest 64.3%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
7 of Man United's 10 matches and 7 of Man City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?