Newcastle vs Hull Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
St James' Park
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.61
Draw
4.45
Away Win
5.19
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Newcastle
Hull
Joe Willock (Harvey Barnes) ⚽
3'
Lewis Hall (Harvey Barnes) ⚽
7'
29'
🟨 Matt Crooks
39'
🟨 Mohamed Belloumi
45+2'
🟨 Konstantinos Tzolakis
Yoane Wissa •
45+2'
Jacob Murphy 🟨
45+3'
49'
🟨 Ryan Giles
67'
⚽ Mohamed Ali Cho (Mohamed Belloumi)
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
12
Total Shots
22
5
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
7
4
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
L. Horníček
L. Miley
M. Thiaw
S. Botman
L. Hall
Sean Steur
J. Willock
J. Murphy
M. Fernandez-Pardo
H. Barnes
Y. Wissa
Hull (5-4-1)
K. Tzolakis
L. Coyle
S. Ajayi
J. Egan
L. Herrington
R. Giles
M. Belloumi
M. Crooks
R. Slater
S. Thomas
O. McBurnie
Player Ratings ?
Newcastle
H. BarnesM8.2
J. WillockM8.2
S. BotmanD7.3
Hull
M. ChoF7.5
K. TzolakisG7.1
M. BelloumiM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Newcastle edge attack and head-to-head, Hull edge recent form, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Hull slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newcastle have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Hull have managed just a solitary win across their corresponding away fixtures over that same span. The Magpies have found the net in five of their last five home matches, though they have conceded in every single one of those contests. Newcastle face eight confirmed absences for the fixture, whereas Hull will be without seven players with one additional player listed as doubtful. Hull hold a slight advantage in form, while Newcastle rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2015. Over the 12-day comparison window, Newcastle's implied win probability has fallen by 8.5 percentage points, while Hull's implied win probability has risen by 5.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Newcastle
Newcastle's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Newcastle win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 59.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
68.3% → 59.8%
−8.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
18.9% → 21.8%
+2.9 pts
Hull win
Latest market chance 18.4%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
12.8% → 18.4%
+5.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Newcastle
Draw
Hull
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NewcastleHull
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
5th
4
Games Played
4
1.25
Points/Game
2.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.25
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.50
10.2
Shots/Game
12.2
3.6
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Newcastle at home (3 matches) vs Hull away (3 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.33
2.00
Goals/Game
1.33
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.33
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Newcastle
Home form
L
W
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Hull
Away form
L
D
L
W
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Newcastle Wins
2
Draws
2
Hull Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.8
Hull0 – 3Newcastle
Newcastle2 – 2Hull
Hull1 – 4Newcastle
Newcastle2 – 3Hull
Hull1 – 1Newcastle
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Newcastlevs
Hull
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.80
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.6%→Latest 58.3%−4.3 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.3%→Latest 55.7%+1.4 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Newcastle's 10 matches and 6 of Hull's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?