Tottenham vs Aston Villa Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 12:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.04
Draw
3.61
Away Win
3.73
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Tottenham
Aston Villa
45+4'
⚽ Johan Manzambi (Boubacar Kamara)
Jan Paul van Hecke 🟨
45+7'
46'
🟨 Nicolas Jackson
67'
⚽ Nicolas Jackson (Johan Manzambi)
79'
⚽ Emiliano Buendía (John McGinn)
Conor Gallagher (Mohammed Kudus) ⚽
86'
90+2'
🟨 Matty Cash
90+2'
🟨 Unai Emery Etxegoien
Jan Paul van Hecke (Andrew Robertson) ⚽
90+8'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
20
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Goal
6
11
Corner Kicks
1
9
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Tottenham (4-2-3-1)
A. Kinský
Pedro Porro
J. van Hecke
M. van de Ven
A. Robertson
R. Bentancur
S. Tonali
Sávio
Mateus Fernandes
Omar Marmoush
D. Solanke
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
Z. Suzuki
A. Wan-Bissaka
V. Lindelöf
T. Mings
M. Ruggeri
B. Kamara
João Gomes
J. McGinn
J. Manzambi
E. Buendía
N. Jackson
Player Ratings ?
Tottenham
SávioM7.2
C. GallagherM6.7
S. TonaliM6.6
Aston Villa
J. ManzambiM8.8
E. BuendíaM8.2
N. JacksonF8.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Tottenham edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Tottenham stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Tottenham stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Tottenham slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Aston Villa have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Tottenham sit with a solitary victory in their last five home matches. At home, Spurs have found the net in three of their last five matches but have kept a clean sheet only twice during that same span. The home side face five confirmed outcasts alongside one doubtful player, whereas Aston Villa have four players ruled out and a further four listed as doubtful. Tottenham rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Tottenham won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 3 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Aston Villa's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Tottenham's implied win probability has risen by 6.7 percentage points, while Aston Villa's implied win probability has fallen by 4.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Tottenham
Tottenham's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Tottenham win as more likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Tottenham win
Latest market chance 47.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
41.0% → 47.1%
+6.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
28.2% → 26.7%
−1.5 pts
Aston Villa win
Latest market chance 26.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
30.7% → 26.2%
−4.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Tottenham
Draw
Aston Villa
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
TottenhamAston Villa
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
19th
4
Games Played
4
0.50
Points/Game
0.25
0.00
Goals/Game
0.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.75
14.2
Shots/Game
9.6
3.8
Shots on Target
2.4
Home vs Away Context
Tottenham at home (3 matches) vs Aston Villa away (3 matches)
0.33
Points/Game
1.33
0.67
Goals/Game
1.00
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Tottenham
Home form
D
D
W
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Aston Villa
Away form
L
D
W
L
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Tottenham Wins
3
Draws
0
Aston Villa Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.4
Aston Villa1 – 2Tottenham
Tottenham1 – 2Aston Villa
Aston Villa2 – 0Tottenham
Tottenham4 – 1Aston Villa
Aston Villa0 – 4Tottenham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Tottenhamvs
Aston Villa
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 54.3%+4.3 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.5%→Latest 57.3%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Tottenham's 10 matches and 6 of Aston Villa's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?