Alverca vs Rio Ave Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.98
Draw
3.49
Away Win
4.04
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Alverca
Rio Ave
Dawda Camara Sankharé (Francisco Chiquinho) ⚽
3'
87'
🟨 Simón García
Davy Gui 🟨
88'
André Vidigal 🟨
90+3'
90+5'
🟨 Francisco Petrasso
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
23
Total Shots
6
6
Shots on Goal
3
8
Corner Kicks
3
12
Fouls
8
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Alverca (3-4-3)
Matheus Mendes
S. Baseya
Sergi Gómez
I. James
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Rayan
D. Gui
Francisco Chissumba
Chiquinho
D. Camara
Figueiredo
Rio Ave (4-2-3-1)
Vitor Hugo
João Tomé
F. Petrasso
S. Garcia
Pedro Amaral
T. Nikitscher
A. Ntoi
Diogo Bezerra
M. Patricio
R. Galčík
J. Blesa
Player Ratings ?
Alverca
D. CamaraF7.8
ChiquinhoF7.7
Sergi GómezD7.7
Rio Ave
Vitor HugoG7.9
M. VrousaiF6.8
T. NikitscherM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Alverca
Alverca rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Alverca a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Alverca stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Rio Ave have recorded just one win and one draw from their last five away outings, while Alverca have secured a single victory alongside three draws in their last five home matches. Alverca have found the net in all five of their recent home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run. Alverca rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Alverca won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 4 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Rio Ave's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Alverca's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Rio Ave's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Alverca a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
62%
Rio Ave yellow cards after 75'
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Alverca
Alverca's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Alverca win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alverca win
Latest market chance 48.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
50.0% → 48.2%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.0% → 27.2%
+0.2 pts
Rio Ave win
Latest market chance 24.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
23.0% → 24.6%
+1.6 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlvercaRio Ave
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
13th
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
0.71
1.57
Goals/Game
1.14
1.71
Conceded/Game
2.43
11.9
Shots/Game
7.1
4.0
Shots on Target
2.6
Home vs Away Context
Alverca at home (5 matches) vs Rio Ave away (5 matches)
1.60
Points/Game
0.60
1.20
Goals/Game
0.40
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.40
40%
Win Rate
20%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Alverca
Home form
W
D
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Rio Ave
Away form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alverca Wins
3
Draws
1
Rio Ave Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Rio Ave1 – 2Alverca
Alverca1 – 1Rio Ave
Rio Ave1 – 2Alverca
Alverca1 – 0Rio Ave
Rio Ave2 – 0Alverca
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alvercavs
Rio Ave
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
2.20
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 46.1%→Latest 48.1%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 52.0%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Alverca's 10 matches and 3 of Rio Ave's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?