Alverca vs Sp Braga Head to Head, Prediction

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
FC Alverca Sports Complex
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.70
Draw
3.61
Away Win
1.78
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Alverca
Sp Braga
Francisco Chiquinho ⚽ (P)
27'
40'
🟨 Adrian Bajrami
Ian Luccas 🟨
45+3'
50'
⚽ Pau Victor (Demir Ege Tıknaz)
57'
⚽ Pau Victor
Francisco Chiquinho 🟨
65'
66'
🟨 Pau Victor
Francisco Chiquinho 🟨
66'
87'
🟨 Gabriel Martínez Aguilera
90+1'
🟨 Gustaf Lagerbielke
Match Statistics ?
32%
Ball Possession
68%
6
Total Shots
16
2
Shots on Goal
6
2
Corner Kicks
2
11
Fouls
15
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Alverca (3-4-3)
Matheus Mendes
S. Baseya
S. Gomez
Y. Bojang
T. Tamarit
Ian Luccas
Rayan Lucas
I. James
Chiquinho
V. Semedo
Figueiredo
Sp Braga (3-4-3)
Bernardo
G. Lagerbielke
Vitor Carvalho
A. Bajrami
V. Gomez
D. E. Tiknaz
J. Moutinho
Travassos
M. Dorgeles
P. Victor
D. Rodrigues
Player Ratings ?
Alverca
Matheus MendesG6.7
S. BaseyaD6.6
ChiquinhoF6.6
Sp Braga
Pau VictorF8.7
E. TıknazM7.7
Vitor CarvalhoD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Braga
Sp Braga rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sp Braga a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Braga slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Braga slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Braga stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Sp Braga
Sp Braga's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Sp Braga win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Alverca win
Latest market chance 20.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.1% → 20.2%
−1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.8% → 26.6%
−0.2 pts
Sp Braga win
Latest market chance 53.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
51.1% → 53.2%
+2.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
4 snapshots
+2.5+1.250−1.25Sep 1Sep 2Sep 3Sep 4
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Alverca
Draw
Sp Braga
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Alverca
Sp Braga
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
9th
4
Games Played
2
0.50
Points/Game
2.00
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
11.9
Shots/Game
12.5
4.0
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Alverca at home (5 matches) vs Sp Braga away (4 matches)
1.60
Points/Game
1.25
1.20
Goals/Game
1.25
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.25
40%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Alverca
Home form
W
W
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Sp Braga
Away form
W
W
L
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
4 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Alverca Wins
0
Draws
1
Sp Braga Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.8
2026-01-252025-2026
Sp Braga5 – 0Alverca
2025-08-172025-2026
Alverca0 – 3Sp Braga
2004-03-012003-2004
Sp Braga0 – 0Alverca
2003-10-062003-2004
Alverca1 – 2Sp Braga
2002-05-052001-2002
Sp Braga5 – 3Alverca
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Alverca
vs
Sp Braga
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.10
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
4/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
69.7%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
46.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
26.6%
BTTSBoth teams score
48.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.4%→Latest 46.3%−2.1 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 1Sep 2Sep 3Sep 4
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 48.6%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Sep 1Sep 2Sep 3Sep 4
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 4 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Alverca's 10 matches and 8 of Sp Braga's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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