Estoril vs Casa Pia Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.74
Draw
3.85
Away Win
4.83
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Estoril
Casa Pia
27'
• Henrique Araújo
Ismael Sierra 🟨
41'
62'
🟨 David Sousa
Ricard Sanchez Sendra (Jordan Holsgrove) ⚽
70'
72'
⚽ Selvi Clua (Lawrence Ofori)
Yanis Begraoui 🟨
82'
Jordan Arnolin 🟨
85'
89'
⚽ Benjamin Pauwels (Sebastián Pérez)
90+5'
🟨 Alassana Jatta
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Goal
3
7
Corner Kicks
4
7
Fouls
11
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Estoril (4-2-3-1)
Joel Robles
Ricard Sánchez
Xavi Sintes
Isma Sierra
R. Jurišić
J. Holsgrove
M. Robin
N. Omerović
João Carvalho
A. Camblan
Y. Begraoui
Casa Pia (4-2-3-1)
Ivan Mandić
Geraldes
Kaly
David Sousa
Pedro Rosas
Silvi
L. Ofori
M. El Boukammiri
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
JP
Henrique Araújo
Player Ratings ?
Estoril
J. HolsgroveM7.7
Ricard SánchezD7.1
Xavi SintesD6.5
Casa Pia
B. PauwelsF7.7
Ivan MandićG7.6
SilviM7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Estoril edge attack, defence and head-to-head, Casa Pia edge recent form, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Casa Pia stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Estoril stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Estoril stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Estoril slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Casa Pia have recorded just one win and a single draw from their last five away outings across multiple seasons, while Estoril remain without a victory in three of their four defeats at home during the same recent period. At home, Estoril have found the net in two of their last five matches but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once in that identical sample size. Casa Pia rate stronger on form, while Estoril rate stronger on attack and defence, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Estoril's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Casa Pia's implied win probability has risen by 0.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Casa Pia losing run
2
Estoril points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Estoril remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Estoril win
Latest market chance 54.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
53.9% → 54.7%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
25.9% → 24.9%
−1.0 pts
Casa Pia win
Latest market chance 20.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.2% → 20.4%
+0.2 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
EstorilCasa Pia

Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
18th
7
Games Played
7
0.29
Points/Game
0.14
0.29
Goals/Game
0.29
1.29
Conceded/Game
2.71
12.7
Shots/Game
10.3
4.4
Shots on Target
2.7
Home vs Away Context
Estoril at home (4 matches) vs Casa Pia away (4 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.00
0.50
Goals/Game
0.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.00
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Estoril
Home form
L
L
D
L
D
Winless in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Casa Pia
Away form
L
W
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Estoril Wins
1
Draws
3
Casa Pia Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Estoril0 – 0Casa Pia
Casa Pia2 – 2Estoril
Casa Pia1 – 3Estoril
Estoril0 – 2Casa Pia
Casa Pia0 – 0Estoril
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Estorilvs
Casa Pia

Recent Scoring Profile
0.50
Goals scored / game
0.40
1.40
Goals conceded / game
2.10
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
5/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.2%→Latest 51.9%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.1%→Latest 52.8%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Estoril's 10 matches and 3 of Casa Pia's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?