Moreirense vs Benfica Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Wed 09 Sep 2026 · 20:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
15.45
Draw
8.30
Away Win
1.17
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 4
Match Events ?
Moreirense
Benfica
Gilberto Batista 🟨
42'
Alexandre Parsemain 🟨
45+3'
45+4'
⚽ (P) Vangelis Pavlidis
Landerson Costa Araújo 🟨
52'
55'
⚽ Andreas Schjelderup (Gianluca Prestianni)
59'
⚽ Gianluca Prestianni (Andreas Schjelderup)
72'
⚽ Fredrik Aursnes (Andreas Schjelderup)
75'
🟨 João Palhinha
Mateja Stjepanović 🟨
87'
90+1'
🟨 Jhon Durán
Match Statistics ?
26%
Ball Possession
74%
8
Total Shots
21
1
Shots on Goal
9
3
Corner Kicks
7
17
Fouls
10
4
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Moreirense (4-2-3-1)
André Ferreira
Dinis Pinto
Gilberto Batista
Maracás
Kiko
N. John
M. Stjepanović
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Rodri Alonso
Landerson
A. Duville-Parsemain
Benfica (4-2-3-1)
Samuel Soares
Daniel Banjaqui
Tomás Araújo
C. Lenglet
S. Dahl
João Palhinha
L. Barreiro
Rafa
G. Prestianni
A. Schjelderup
V. Pavlidis
Player Ratings ?
Moreirense
André FerreiraG6.7
Tiago AndradeF6.5
MaranhãoF6.4
Benfica
A. SchjelderupM9.7
G. PrestianniM9.0
C. LengletD7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Benfica
Benfica rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Benfica a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Benfica stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Benfica arrive at this Primeira Liga fixture with an impressive away record, having secured four victories and a single draw from their last five outings across seasons, while Moreirense have managed two wins alongside two draws in the same number of home matches. At home, Moreirense have found the net in three of their last five campaigns while also keeping two clean sheets within that identical sample period. Benfica rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Benfica won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Moreirense's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Moreirense's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points, while Benfica's implied win probability has risen by 4.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Benfica a strong edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Benfica
Benfica's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Benfica win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 6.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
7.9% → 6.3%
−1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 12.0%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
14.9% → 12.0%
−2.9 pts
Benfica win
Latest market chance 81.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
77.3% → 81.7%
+4.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Moreirense
Draw
Benfica
3 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MoreirenseBenfica
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
4th
4
Games Played
4
1.00
Points/Game
2.50
1.00
Goals/Game
3.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.75
7.3
Shots/Game
19.1
2.9
Shots on Target
7.1
Home vs Away Context
Moreirense at home (4 matches) vs Benfica away (4 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
2.25
2.00
Goals/Game
3.75
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.75
50%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Moreirense
Home form
L
W
W
D
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Benfica
Away form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
3.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Moreirense Wins
0
Draws
1
Benfica Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.8
Benfica4 – 1Moreirense
Moreirense0 – 4Benfica
Benfica3 – 2Moreirense
Moreirense1 – 1Benfica
Benfica3 – 0Moreirense
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Moreirensevs
Benfica
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
2.90
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.1%→Latest 65.0%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 41.9%→Latest 42.4%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Moreirense's 10 matches and 6 of Benfica's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?