Moreirense vs Gil Vicente Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.60
Draw
3.10
Away Win
2.23
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Moreirense edge recent form and attack, Gil Vicente edge defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Moreirense slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Moreirense stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Gil Vicente stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Gil Vicente stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Gil Vicente have drawn three and lost two in their last five away fixtures, whereas Moreirense have recorded two wins alongside two draws and a single defeat at home over the same number of matches. Moreirense have found the net in three of their last five home outings while keeping just one clean sheet during that identical sample. Moreirense rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form, while Gil Vicente rate stronger on defence and head-to-head. Gil Vicente won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 7 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Moreirense's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
3
Gil Vicente points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
Moreirense
No current absences reported
Gil Vicente
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 27.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.8%
+0.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.6% → 29.6%
±0.0 pts
Gil Vicente win
Latest market chance 42.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
42.9% → 42.6%
−0.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Moreirense
Draw
Gil Vicente
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MoreirenseGil Vicente

Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
12th
8
Games Played
7
1.38
Points/Game
1.29
1.38
Goals/Game
0.86
1.88
Conceded/Game
0.86
7.3
Shots/Game
14.0
2.9
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Moreirense at home (4 matches) vs Gil Vicente away (2 matches)
1.75
Points/Game
0.50
2.00
Goals/Game
0.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches

Moreirense
Home form
D
D
L
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS

Gil Vicente
Away form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Moreirense Wins
2
Draws
0
Gil Vicente Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.4
Moreirense1 – 2Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente2 – 0Moreirense
Gil Vicente0 – 1Moreirense
Moreirense3 – 2Gil Vicente
Moreirense0 – 1Gil Vicente
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Moreirensevs
Gil Vicente

Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.20
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 40.7%→Latest 40.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.2%→Latest 47.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Moreirense's 10 matches and 3 of Gil Vicente's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?