Nacional vs Famalicao Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Estádio da Madeira
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.84
Draw
3.31
Away Win
2.10
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 4
Match Events ?
Nacional
Famalicao
7'
⚽ Georgios Koutsias (Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura)
13'
⚽ Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
28'
🟨 Víctor Rofino Gordo
40'
⚽ Georgios Koutsias (Mathias De Amorim)
63'
🟨 Pedro Bondo Francisco
67'
⚽ Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura (Mathias De Amorim)
Williams Kokolo 🟨
71'
Matheus dos Santos Dias 🟨
74'
75'
🟨 Finn van Breemen
Matheus dos Santos Dias 🟥
77'
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
12
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Goal
7
7
Corner Kicks
3
11
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Nacional (4-1-4-1)
Renato Bellucci
Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
Francisco Gonçalves
Zé Vitor
José Gomes
Matheus Dias
Miguel Baeza
C. Labidi
Matchoi Djaló
Song Min-Kyu
A. Obando
Famalicao (4-2-3-1)
L. Carević
Rodrigo Pinheiro
Víctor Rofino
F. van Breemen
Pedro Francisco
Marcos Peña
Tamás Szücs
Gil Dias
Mathias De Amorim
Sorriso
G. Koutsias
Player Ratings ?
Nacional
C. LabidiM7.0
Matchoi DjalóM6.4
Pablo RuanF6.4
Famalicao
SorrisoM9.8
G. KoutsiasF9.3
Mathias De AmorimM8.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Nacional edge attack, Famalicao edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Famalicao stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Nacional stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Famalicao stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Famalicao stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Famalicao have recorded just one victory in their last five away outings, while Nacional have suffered three defeats during that same span at home. Nacional have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have managed only two clean sheets in that period. Famalicao rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Nacional rate stronger on attack. Famalicao won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 21 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Nacional's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.6 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Nacional's implied win probability has risen by 0.2 percentage points, while Famalicao's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
58%
Famalicao yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Famalicao
Famalicao's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Famalicao win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nacional win
Latest market chance 25.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.3% → 25.5%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.1% → 28.7%
+0.6 pts
Famalicao win
Latest market chance 45.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
46.6% → 45.8%
−0.8 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NacionalFamalicao
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
14th
7
Games Played
6
0.57
Points/Game
0.67
1.14
Goals/Game
0.83
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.17
10.7
Shots/Game
9.6
2.9
Shots on Target
3.4
Home vs Away Context
Nacional at home (6 matches) vs Famalicao away (5 matches)
0.50
Points/Game
1.60
1.00
Goals/Game
2.20
2.83
Conceded/Game
0.80
17%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nacional
Home form
W
W
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Famalicao
Away form
W
D
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nacional Wins
1
Draws
1
Famalicao Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.6
Famalicao1 – 0Nacional
Nacional0 – 1Famalicao
Nacional2 – 1Famalicao
Famalicao0 – 0Nacional
Famalicao3 – 0Nacional
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nacionalvs
Famalicao
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.80
Goals conceded / game
0.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.3%→Latest 44.7%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 50.0%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Nacional's 10 matches and 4 of Famalicao's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?