Porto vs Moreirense Head to Head, Prediction
Fri 04 Sep 2026 · 20:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.14
Draw
8.75
Away Win
20.34
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Porto
Moreirense
20'
⚽ Dinis Pinto
Jan Bednarek (William Gomes) ⚽
37'
44'
🟨 João Veloso
William Gomes (Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa) ⚽
58'
Francisco Moura 🟨
63'
68'
🟨 Dinis Pinto
90'
🟥 Guilherme Liberato
Match Statistics ?
70%
Ball Possession
30%
23
Total Shots
7
9
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
1
11
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Porto (4-3-3)
Diogo Costa
Alberto Baio
J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior
Francisco Moura
Victor Mow Froholdt
P. Rosario
Gabri Veiga
William
André Silva
Pepê Aquino
Moreirense (3-4-3)
André Ferreira
Gilberto Batista
Maracás
Kiko
Dinis Pinto
N. John
Guilherme Liberato
Landerson
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
A. Duville-Parsemain
João Veloso
Player Ratings ?
Porto
WilliamF9.0
J. BednarekD8.1
Pepê AquinoF7.4
Moreirense
Dinis PintoM7.5
André FerreiraG6.7
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Porto
Porto rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Porto a very strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Porto stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Porto stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Porto
Porto's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Porto win as more likely than it did 3 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Porto win
Latest market chance 83.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
82.2% → 83.7%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 11.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
12.4% → 11.8%
−0.6 pts
Moreirense win
Latest market chance 4.5%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
5.4% → 4.5%
−0.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Porto
Draw
Moreirense
11 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
PortoMoreirense
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
11th
4
Games Played
3
3.00
Points/Game
1.33
2.25
Goals/Game
1.00
0.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
16.0
Shots/Game
7.3
6.3
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Porto at home (4 matches) vs Moreirense away (4 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.25
Goals/Game
0.75
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.75
100%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Porto
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
5/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Moreirense
Away form
D
L
L
L
W
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Porto Wins
5
Draws
0
Moreirense Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.6
Porto3 – 0Moreirense
Moreirense1 – 2Porto
Porto3 – 1Moreirense
Moreirense0 – 3Porto
Porto5 – 0Moreirense
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Portovs
Moreirense
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.90
0.50
Goals conceded / game
1.60
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 10 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.0%→Latest 59.2%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 36.6%→Latest 33.9%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Porto's 10 matches and 7 of Moreirense's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?