Sp Lisbon vs Nacional Head to Head, Prediction
Sat 05 Sep 2026 · 20:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.19
Draw
7.67
Away Win
11.76
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Sp Lisbon
Nacional
Maximiliano Araújo 🟨
5'
Sergi Altimira 🟨
20'
L. Suarez ⚽ (P)
32'
48'
🟨 Markus Jensen
F. Goncalves (L. Suarez) ⚽
49'
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
19
Total Shots
3
8
Shots on Goal
2
12
Corner Kicks
0
10
Fouls
7
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Sp Lisbon (4-2-3-1)
R. Silva
I. Fresneda
Z. Debast
G. Inacio
M. Araujo
S. Altimira
I. Doumbia
G. Catamo
R. Zalazar
F. Goncalves
L. Suarez
Nacional (3-4-2-1)
R. Marin
Leo Santos
C. Goncalves
Ze Vitor
Wesley Gasolina
Matheus Dias
M. Baeza
W. Kokolo
S. Gavriel
M. Jensen
Pablo Ruan
Player Ratings ?
Sp Lisbon
Zeno DebastD8.0
Issa DoumbiaM7.9
Flávio GonçalvesM7.7
Nacional
Renato MarinG7.7
Chiheb LabidiM7.0
Miguel BaezaM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Sp Lisbon an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Sp Lisbon stronger
HomeAway
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Sp Lisbon win as less likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Sp Lisbon win
Latest market chance 77.3%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
80.1% → 77.3%
−2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 14.8%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
12.5% → 14.8%
+2.3 pts
Nacional win
Latest market chance 7.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
7.4% → 7.9%
+0.5 pts
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Sp LisbonNacional
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
10th
4
Games Played
4
2.50
Points/Game
1.00
3.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.50
13.4
Shots/Game
10.7
5.9
Shots on Target
2.9
Home vs Away Context
Sp Lisbon at home (5 matches) vs Nacional away (3 matches)
2.20
Points/Game
0.33
2.40
Goals/Game
0.67
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.67
60%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Sp Lisbon
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
3 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nacional
Away form
L
W
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Sp Lisbon Wins
5
Draws
0
Nacional Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.8
Sp Lisbon2 – 1Nacional
Nacional1 – 4Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon2 – 0Nacional
Nacional1 – 6Sp Lisbon
Sp Lisbon2 – 0Nacional
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Sp Lisbonvs
Nacional
Recent Scoring Profile
2.80
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.20
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.7%→Latest 65.6%−3.1 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 47.5%→Latest 49.0%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
6 of Sp Lisbon's 10 matches and 6 of Nacional's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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