Ayr vs Dunfermline Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Somerset Park
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.15
Draw
3.19
Away Win
2.30
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Dunfermline edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Dunfermline have enjoyed a mixed away record in their last five outings with two wins and two draws against just one defeat, while Ayr sit deeper at home after recording only a single win and draw from three losses across that same span. Ayr have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have managed just one clean sheet within that identical period at this venue. Dunfermline rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 8 August 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ayr win
Latest market chance 30.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
30.7% → 30.7%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.4%
±0.0 pts
Dunfermline win
Latest market chance 40.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
40.9% → 40.9%
±0.0 pts
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ayr
Dunfermline
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
5th
9
Games Played
7
1.22
Points/Game
1.71
1.00
Goals/Game
0.86
1.11
Conceded/Game
0.57
5.4
Shots/Game
11.7
2.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Ayr at home (4 matches) vs Dunfermline away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.25
1.00
Goals/Game
0.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.75
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ayr
Home form
L
W
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Dunfermline
Away form
W
D
L
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ayr Wins
2
Draws
1
Dunfermline Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.4
2026-08-082026-2027
Dunfermline1 – 1Ayr
2026-04-072025-2026
Ayr0 – 3Dunfermline
2025-12-202025-2026
Dunfermline2 – 3Ayr
2025-10-312025-2026
Ayr0 – 1Dunfermline
2025-09-232025-2026
Dunfermline0 – 1Ayr
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ayr
vs
Dunfermline
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.10
Goals conceded / game
0.60
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
0/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
71.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
47.1%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
27.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
52.7%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.1%→Latest 47.1%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 52.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Ayr's 10 matches and 3 of Dunfermline's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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