Ayr vs Inverness C Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Somerset Park
Sat 12 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.63
Draw
3.37
Away Win
2.65
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Ayr
Inverness C
4'
⚽ L. Longstaff (P. Allan)
17'
⚽ R. Duncan
O. Stirton (R. Taylor) ⚽
27'
53'
🟨 A. Stewart
71'
⚽ A. Mackinnon (G. Shinnie)
73'
🟨 R. Savage
79'
🟨 A. Mackinnon
S. McMann 🟨
88'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Ayr edge head-to-head, Inverness C edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Inverness C stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Inverness C stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Inverness C slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ayr slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Inverness C have recorded just one victory in their last five away outings, while Ayr have secured two wins from their corresponding home sample. Ayr have scored in three of their last five matches at home, though they have also managed to keep two clean sheets within that same five-game window. Inverness C rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while Ayr hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Ayr won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 16 March 2024, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Inverness C's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3/5
One-goal H2H results
50%
Inverness C yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Ayr
Ayr's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Ayr win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. Inverness C remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ayr win
Latest market chance 35.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
31.6% → 35.3%
+3.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.9% → 28.7%
−0.2 pts
Inverness C win
Latest market chance 36.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
39.5% → 36.0%
−3.5 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+4+20−2Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ayr
Draw
Inverness C
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Ayr
Inverness C
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
9th
5
Games Played
5
1.00
Points/Game
0.60
0.80
Goals/Game
0.40
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.20
5.4
Shots/Game
8.6
2.9
Shots on Target
4.0
Home vs Away Context
Ayr at home (4 matches) vs Inverness C away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.25
1.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.25
Conceded/Game
1.50
25%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ayr
Home form
L
W
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Inverness C
Away form
L
W
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ayr Wins
3
Draws
0
Inverness C Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
2024-03-162023-2024
Inverness C1 – 2Ayr
2024-01-062023-2024
Ayr1 – 3Inverness C
2023-11-112023-2024
Inverness C3 – 1Ayr
2023-08-122023-2024
Ayr1 – 0Inverness C
2023-05-052022-2023
Inverness C1 – 2Ayr
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ayr
vs
Inverness C
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
0.90
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.00
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
71.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
46.5%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
26.5%
BTTSBoth teams score
52.7%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.8%→Latest 46.4%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 51.6%→Latest 52.5%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Sep 7Sep 8Sep 9Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 5 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Ayr's 10 matches and 5 of Inverness C's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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