Ayr vs Stenhousemuir Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Somerset Park
Fri 25 Sep 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.28
Draw
3.29
Away Win
3.19
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Ayr
Stenhousemuir
20'
⚽ S. Young (S. Bright)
30'
🟨 L. Grant
43'
🟨 M. Gillies
R. Taylor 🟨
50'
51'
🟨 A. Shinnie
K. Shanks 🟨
87'
N. McAllister 🟨
89'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Ayr edge head-to-head, giving Stenhousemuir a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Stenhousemuir stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Ayr stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Stenhousemuir have enjoyed a promising run away from home with two wins and a draw in their last three outings, while Ayr sit at home with two victories and a draw from five matches but also suffered two defeats during that span. Ayr have found the net in four of their last five home fixtures yet remain far from consistent defensively, having conceded in three of those same five encounters despite keeping two clean sheets. Stenhousemuir rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Ayr rate stronger on head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2016. Over the 6-day comparison window, Ayr's implied win probability has risen by 1.5 percentage points, while Stenhousemuir's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Stenhousemuir a slight edge.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Stenhousemuir win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Ayr remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Ayr win
Latest market chance 41.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
40.1% → 41.6%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.7% → 29.1%
+0.4 pts
Stenhousemuir win
Latest market chance 29.2%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
31.2% → 29.2%
−2.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Ayr
Draw
Stenhousemuir
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AyrStenhousemuir
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
1st
7
Games Played
7
1.14
Points/Game
2.71
1.00
Goals/Game
1.57
1.14
Conceded/Game
0.29
5.4
Shots/Game
7.1
2.9
Shots on Target
3.0
Home vs Away Context
Ayr at home (4 matches) vs Stenhousemuir away (4 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
2.50
1.00
Goals/Game
1.25
1.25
Conceded/Game
0.25
25%
Win Rate
75%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Ayr
Home form
W
L
W
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Stenhousemuir
Away form
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 3 away
Limited history — only 3 away fixtures on record for Stenhousemuir.
1.33
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.33
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/3
Scored in
last 3
last 3
2/3
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Ayr Wins
4
Draws
1
Stenhousemuir Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.4
Stenhousemuir0 – 4Ayr
Ayr4 – 1Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir0 – 1Ayr
Ayr5 – 2Stenhousemuir
Ayr0 – 0Stenhousemuir
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Ayrvs
Stenhousemuir
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.57
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.29
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
1/7
5/10
Both Teams Scored
2/7
3/10
Failed to Score
0/7
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 47.3%→Latest 43.7%−3.6 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 49.9%−2.7 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Stenhousemuir have only 7 completed fixtures on record.
3 of Ayr's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?