Morton vs Dunfermline Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Cappielow Park
Sat 19 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
4.54
Draw
4.05
Away Win
1.68
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Morton
Dunfermline
62'
⚽ D. Lobban (R. Fraser)
C. Okike 🟨
90+1'
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Dunfermline
Dunfermline rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Dunfermline an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Dunfermline slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dunfermline stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Dunfermline have managed just one victory from their last five away outings, while Morton have failed to win any of their three losses and two draws at home in the same span. Morton have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have kept only a single clean sheet during that period. Dunfermline rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Dunfermline won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 4 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Morton's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Morton's implied win probability has fallen by 3.0 percentage points, while Dunfermline's implied win probability has risen by 5.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Dunfermline.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Morton losing run
2
Morton points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Dunfermline
Dunfermline's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Dunfermline win as more likely than it did 4 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Morton win
Latest market chance 20.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
23.8% → 20.8%
−3.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
27.0% → 24.4%
−2.6 pts
Dunfermline win
Latest market chance 54.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
49.2% → 54.8%
+5.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Morton
Draw
Dunfermline
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MortonDunfermline
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
5th
6
Games Played
6
0.17
Points/Game
1.50
0.67
Goals/Game
0.83
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.67
7.4
Shots/Game
11.7
2.7
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Morton at home (5 matches) vs Dunfermline away (4 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
1.25
0.60
Goals/Game
0.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
0.75
0%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Morton
Home form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Dunfermline
Away form
D
W
D
L
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Morton Wins
2
Draws
1
Dunfermline Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Dunfermline3 – 1Morton
Morton2 – 0Dunfermline
Dunfermline1 – 0Morton
Morton0 – 0Dunfermline
Morton2 – 0Dunfermline
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mortonvs
Dunfermline
Recent Scoring Profile
0.70
Goals scored / game
0.90
2.00
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
1/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.7%→Latest 54.1%+5.4 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.0%→Latest 54.7%+2.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Morton's 10 matches and 4 of Dunfermline's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?